Meta’s Amazon CPU deal raises questions on Nvidia’s market cap dominance

Meta’s multibillion-dollar deal with Amazon for AWS Graviton5 CPU chips has drawn attention to NVIDIA’s position atop the market cap rankings. The Polymarket contract on NVIDIA being the largest company by market cap on June 30 sits at 89.5% YES.

## Market reaction

The June 30 market holds at 89.5%, while the December 31 market is at 0.8% YES, unchanged from last week. The deal raises the question of whether large-scale adoption of Amazon’s CPUs could reduce dependence on NVIDIA’s GPUs, affecting NVIDIA’s long-term position. Check the market.

## Why it matters

The NVIDIA market cap contract trades about $65,064 a day in face value, but actual USDC traded is just $253. Liquidity is thin: $278 is enough to move the price 5 points, meaning a single large trader could cause significant swings. No major price moves in the last 24 hours suggest traders are still processing the news.

At 90¢, a YES share pays $1 if NVIDIA holds the top spot by June 30, a 1.11x return. The bet depends on whether NVIDIA can maintain its market cap lead as Meta and Amazon deepen their CPU partnership.

## What to watch

NVIDIA’s next earnings report and any further announcements from Meta or Amazon about the scope of this deal. Either could shift trader positioning on the contract.

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