Bitcoin’s $100,000 by year-end market sits at 34.5% YES, down from 36% yesterday, as rising oil prices and inflation fears pressure the contract lower.

Market reaction

Middle East tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have spiked oil prices and raised inflation expectations. This macro environment has pushed the $100,000 sub-market down. The $150,000 market is unchanged at 9.5% YES.

Daily trading volume is $3,490, and liquidity is thin: $2,908 moves the $100,000 market by 5 points, and just $792 does the same for the $150,000 market. A single large order can shift these prices meaningfully, which signals volatility rather than broad consensus.

Why it matters

Elevated oil prices and inflation delay potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, a bearish setup for Bitcoin. Geopolitical instability could also trigger risk-off behavior, adding more downward pressure. A YES share at 34.5¢ pays $1 if Bitcoin hits $100,000, a 2.90x return. That price reflects traders weighting macro risks above crypto-specific factors.

What to watch

Federal Reserve statements and geopolitical developments around the Strait of Hormuz. Any shift in Fed rate policy or de-escalation in the region could move these contracts.

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