Middle Eastern oil producers seek new routes as Strait of Hormuz remains closed

Middle Eastern oil producers are seeking alternative export routes as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, pushing the odds of crude oil reaching an all-time high by April 30 down to 0.5% YES from 2% a day ago.

Market reaction

The exploration of new routes, including Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu and the UAE’s Fujairah, has eased some supply concerns. The April 30 sub-market saw a 1-point spike early in the morning but quickly settled, suggesting traders are pricing in the possibility that these alternative routes reduce supply disruptions.

Why it matters

Plans for a $10 billion pipeline network bypassing Hormuz are leading traders to re-evaluate the risk of sustained price spikes. Odds for crude oil hitting $90 by end of June and WTI crude reaching $160 in April 2026 have also dropped, though exact figures aren’t available yet.

Trading volume on the all-time high by April 30 market is $2,513 in actual USDC daily. The order book is thin: just $695 would move the odds by 5 points. That makes the market vulnerable to volatility from larger individual trades, though the current direction is clearly bearish on crude hitting new highs.

What to watch

The source tier is 3, meaning the information comes from social media or aggregators. A YES share at 0.5¢ pays $1 if crude exceeds its all-time high by April 30, a 200x return. For that bet to pay off, the current route exploration would need to fail and regional tensions would need to escalate further.

Watch for announcements on pipeline construction progress or shifts in OPEC+ production strategies. Either could move odds as the April 30 resolution date approaches.

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