Mojtaba Khamenei’s leadership stalls US, Israeli efforts for Iran regime change

Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment as the new Supreme Leader has stalled U.S. and Israeli efforts to replace Iran’s leadership. The market on Reza Pahlavi’s entry into Iran by June 30 is at 6% YES, down from 7% a week ago.

Khamenei’s ascension signals hardline continuity, making regime change less likely in traders’ eyes. The Reza Pahlavi entry market for December 31 fell to 12% YES, down from 16% a week ago. Traders are moving away from bets on any near-term Pahlavi return given the regime’s consolidated power.

The Iranian regime fall by May 31 market is priced at 4% YES, down from 6% a week ago. The June 30 market sits at 10% YES. Both contracts show little faith in imminent regime collapse under the new leadership.

The regime fall market has $574,881 in face value but only $54,614 in actual USDC traded daily. It would take $59,096 in USDC to shift the odds by 5 percentage points, which indicates a thick book. The largest recent move was a 1-point drop at 3:28 PM from 6% to 4%.

Mojtaba Khamenei’s leadership reinforces policy continuity and resistance to Western engagement. At 6¢, a YES share on Pahlavi entering by June 30 offers a 16.7x return, a price that reflects deep trader skepticism about any political opening.

Watch for signals from Iranian state media or unexpected fractures within the IRGC. Either could move these contracts sharply.

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