Morgan Stanley Bitcoin ETF sees $30M+ inflows, market reaction muted

Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin ETF debuted with $30-34 million in inflows, while the Polymarket contract for Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by year-end sits at 34.5% YES, down from 36% yesterday.

The $100K contract dropped slightly despite the ETF launch, though it’s still up from 30% seven days ago. The $150,000 target remains at 9.5% YES. Traders are pricing the more ambitious milestone with considerably more skepticism.

With $2,613 in USDC traded on the $100,000 market and $877 on the $150,000 market, liquidity is thin. The largest recent move was a 1-point spike. It takes $2,908 to move the $100,000 odds 5 points, compared to just $792 for the $150,000 contract, which makes the $100K market relatively harder to push around.

Morgan Stanley’s ETF debut signals institutional entry, but the market’s reaction was muted, suggesting traders want more than a single ETF launch to reprice Bitcoin’s year-end odds. At 35¢ for a YES share, the bet pays $1 if Bitcoin hits $100K, a 2.86x return. That payout assumes continued institutional buying and no major regulatory setbacks.

Watch for moves from BlackRock and MicroStrategy on further Bitcoin exposure. SEC regulatory updates and Fed policy shifts could move these contracts sharply.

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