Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by December 31, 2026, sits at 38% YES on Polymarket, up from 34% a week ago, as major banks push further into Bitcoin ETF products.

Market reaction

Morgan Stanley launched its spot Bitcoin Trust ETF earlier in April with a 0.14% fee. Goldman Sachs filed for a Bitcoin Premium Income ETF on April 15. Both moves follow the SEC’s adoption of generic listing standards, which speeds up ETF approvals.

Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by year’s end is at 11% YES, up from 10% last week. The short-term market for Bitcoin’s price on April 17 is locked in at 100% YES.

The $100,000 target market trades $1,600 in actual USDC daily, with $8,640 needed to move the price by 5 percentage points. The largest move in the past 24 hours was a 1-point spike, suggesting steady accumulation rather than a rush.

Why it matters

Wall Street banks building ETF products around Bitcoin changes the demand picture. Institutional access channels bring new capital that didn’t previously have a compliant way to get exposure. For traders, buying YES at 38¢ pays $1 if Bitcoin hits $100,000, a 2.63x return. That bet requires continued institutional momentum and a cooperative regulatory environment.

What to watch

Further ETF filings and inflow data into existing products are the next signals. Morgan Stanley’s and Goldman’s follow-on moves, along with any SEC commentary on the new generic listing standards, will directly affect these odds.

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