Morgan Stanley to offer Bitcoin custody, boosting institutional crypto access

Morgan Stanley announced plans to become a Bitcoin and crypto bank, holding digital assets for clients. In the Bitcoin Price Predictions in April market, the odds of Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in April are falling, while the $100,000-by-end-of-2026 target on the Bitcoin Price Targets market sits at 37.5%, up from 30% a week ago.

Market reaction

Morgan Stanley entering the crypto custody space is shifting several Polymarket contracts. The probability of Bitcoin staying above $56,000 on April 10 has strengthened in the Bitcoin Above Price Predictions in April market, as a major bank offering custody reduces the likelihood of a sharp selloff. The $150,000-by-2026 target sits at 9.5%.

Trading volume in the price targets market hit $2,187 of actual USDC in the last 24 hours. The liquidity required to move the $100,000 target by 5 percentage points is $10,824, which suggests active two-sided interest among traders.

Why it matters

A top-five U.S. bank offering crypto custody directly to clients removes a friction point that has kept some institutional capital on the sidelines. If Morgan Stanley follows through, other wealth management firms face pressure to match the offering or lose clients who want digital asset exposure through their existing accounts.

What to watch

Further institutional custody announcements and regulatory developments from the SEC and Federal Reserve could move these odds. Any concrete timeline from Morgan Stanley on when custody services go live would be the next catalyst.

Payout math

At 37.5%, a YES share on Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by end of 2026 pays $1, a potential 2.67x return.

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