Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin ETF sees $100M inflow in first week

Morgan Stanley’s MSBT Bitcoin ETF pulled in over $100M during its first week, with $83.6M going directly into Bitcoin. The market for Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by December 31, 2026, now sits at 38% YES.

Market reaction

The MSBT inflow has had little visible effect on Bitcoin price predictions for April. The market for Bitcoin hitting $78,000-$80,000 on April 15 is at 100% YES, with traders clearly locked into that range as the date approaches.

The April 2026 market predicting a dip to $60,000 has no odds currently available, though U.S.-Iran tensions are a factor traders are weighing.

Why it matters

The $100,000 by December 31, 2026 market has moved from 34% to 38%. Daily USDC volume is $1,600, and it takes roughly $8,640 to shift odds by 5 percentage points. That’s enough liquidity to function but thin enough that a single large trade can move the price meaningfully.

A $100M ETF launch from Morgan Stanley is a concrete data point for institutional demand. But the geopolitical situation, particularly U.S.-Iran tensions, works against near-term price momentum. At 38¢, a YES share pays 2.63x if Bitcoin hits the target.

What to watch

U.S.-Iran developments could move Bitcoin in either direction. Federal Reserve statements and any new major asset manager allocations to Bitcoin are the other catalysts worth tracking.

API access