NATO’s nuclear policy was updated in 2024, shaped by the 2022 Strategic Concept to ensure credible deterrence and political control.

What modernization actually looks like

By 2026, NATO allies that host US nuclear weapons, apart from Turkey, are incorporating the F-35A Lightning II into their nuclear-sharing missions.

The UK has announced its intention to purchase 12 F-35A jets by 2025 specifically for NATO nuclear missions.

The US nuclear modernization program is expected to cost around $946 billion for operations and upgrades between 2025 and 2034. That covers delivery systems, warheads, and the sprawling infrastructure that keeps extended deterrence credible across the Atlantic.

The spending focuses on modernizing all three legs of the nuclear triad: land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched missiles, and air-delivered weapons. The F-35A upgrades across NATO allies directly support that air-delivered component.

The strategic backdrop

The foundation was laid in the 2022 Strategic Concept, a document the alliance adopted at its Madrid summit that explicitly named Russia as “the most significant and direct threat” to allied security. The 2022 Strategic Concept triggered a cascade of policy updates, including a revised nuclear policy in 2024 designed to ensure what NATO calls “credible deterrence and political control.”

The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty collapsed in 2019, contributing to an environment requiring ongoing nuclear modernization.

What this means for investors

Lockheed Martin, the F-35’s prime contractor, along with its extensive supplier network spanning dozens of countries, will see sustained order flow as NATO members integrate the aircraft into nuclear missions.

The $946 billion US modernization estimate covers just one country’s contribution over ten years. The UK, France, and the various nuclear-sharing nations upgrading their air forces represent additional allied investment in nuclear capabilities beyond that figure.