Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu supports President Trump’s naval blockade threat on Iran. The market on Iran surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile by April 30 sits at 9% YES, down from 23% yesterday.

The April 30, 2026 sub-market dropped from 16% to 9% overnight after Netanyahu backed Trump’s aggressive stance. The June 30 market also fell from 44% to 24%, with traders pricing in a prolonged standoff rather than near-term capitulation.

The December 31 sub-market sits at 39% YES. The 15-point spread between the June and December markets suggests traders think immediate concessions are unlikely but see a real chance of resolution by year-end, possibly through a diplomatic channel that doesn’t yet exist.

Daily volume on the April market is $12,487 in USDC, but it only takes $1,393 to shift odds by 5 points, making the market susceptible to large strategic bets. A 2-point dip at 3:22 AM shows how sensitive pricing is to geopolitical headlines.

Netanyahu’s endorsement of the blockade strengthens the hardline narrative and narrows Iran’s path to compliance. Buying YES at 9¢ pays $1 if Iran agrees to surrender by April 30, a 11x return. That bet requires believing in a dramatic diplomatic turnaround within 18 days.

Watch for developments from Oman or changes in Iran’s negotiation team. Any movement toward opening the Strait of Hormuz could shift market odds quickly.

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