Netanyahu trial resumes amid speculation on political future

Netanyahu’s criminal trial resumed Tuesday with testimony in the Bezeq-Walla affair. The “Netanyahu out by June 30” contract sits at 5.5% YES, down from 6% a day ago.

The trial restarted after a two-month pause caused by regional conflicts, prompting traders to reassess Netanyahu’s political future. The June 30 contract is priced at 5.5%, consistent with skepticism about rapid legal developments. The April 30 contract remains at 0.1% with only six days left to resolution.

The term structure shows a 5-point gap between April 30 and June 30, which suggests traders see possible catalysts over the next two months. Daily volume is $1,423 in USDC, a thin market where one large order could easily move the price.

At 5.5¢, a YES share for June 30 pays $1 if Netanyahu is out by then, a 18x return. For that bet to pay off, you’d need a major legal or political shift within the next 67 days. The trial’s resumption while security concerns persist puts Netanyahu’s legal exposure back in the news cycle, but the market is pricing almost no chance of a near-term exit.

Watch for testimony that could change public opinion or legal outcomes. Any resignation signals or coalition fractures could push odds higher quickly.

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