Small business owners in America just got a lot more cheerful. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index climbed to 97.4 in June, up from 95.3 in May, marking a 2.1-point jump.

The numbers in context

A 2.1-point monthly increase is notable, but the index still sits below its 52-year average of approximately 98. That long-term benchmark has been tracked since the survey’s inception in the 1970s, making it one of the longest-running economic sentiment datasets in the country.

May’s reading of 95.3 had already represented a 0.6-point decline from April. The Uncertainty Index, a companion measure that tracks how unsure business owners feel about near-term conditions, rose to 91 in May as confidence was slipping.

For historical comparison, the index hit the exact same 97.4 level back in March 2025, which at the time represented a 3.3-point drop.

The NFIB survey covers ten components that paint a granular picture of Main Street sentiment. These include hiring plans, capital spending intentions, and inflation expectations.

The uncertainty factor

Perhaps more telling than the optimism number itself is the trajectory of the Uncertainty Index. Its climb to 91 in May reflected genuine anxiety among business owners about everything from tariff policy to consumer spending patterns.

The June optimism rebound suggests that whatever was making business owners nervous in May has either resolved or at least stopped getting worse. The current setup, rising optimism but still below historical norms, suggests an economy that’s healing but not yet healthy.