Nvidia’s stock closed at roughly $194.83 in early July, having shed approximately 13% over the prior month.

The technical picture: bruised but not broken

Nvidia is currently trading below both its EMA20, sitting at $202.75, and its EMA50, at $204.19. Those two levels are now acting as near-term resistance. The daily RSI reading of 41.16 places the stock in technically bearish territory, and the MACD histogram is negative, meaning downward momentum has not fully cleared the system yet.

Nvidia’s EMA200 is holding near the $188 to $189 range, and the stock has not closed below it. Traders are now watching two specific triggers. First, a reclaim of the $195.75 daily pivot point. Second, a sustained close above the $199 to $200 zone.

44 upgrades versus 4 downgrades: analysts are not hedging

Analysts have issued 44 upward revisions to Nvidia’s earnings per share estimates for the upcoming fiscal year, compared to just 4 downward revisions. That is an 11-to-1 margin of estimates marked up rather than down.

Concrete evidence of demand landed recently in the form of a supply agreement for Blackwell B300 chips with Bit Origin, valued at $11 million.

What investors should actually be watching

The risk is that the stock fails to reclaim $199 to $200 on the next attempt, which would likely invite another test of the EMA200 support around $188 to $189. A break below that level would require reassessing the structural uptrend that has defined NVDA for the past several years.

For investors with a longer time horizon, the 44-to-4 analyst revision ratio is the more important signal. Short-term momentum indicators like RSI and MACD capture where a stock has been over the past few weeks. Earnings revisions capture where a company’s cash flows are likely heading over the next several quarters.