NVDA stock climbed over 3% today, reaching new all-time highs above $211 as the semiconductor sector posted its 19th consecutive session of gains. The Polymarket contract asking whether NVIDIA will be the largest company by market cap by June 30 is at 91.5% YES.
Market reaction
The semiconductor rally has been driven by AI chip demand, with TSMC reporting Q1 revenue up 35% year-over-year. NVIDIA trades at a 50% discount to its peers according to BofA. The market ticked up from 90% a day ago, with the largest price move in the last 24 hours a modest 1-point spike.
JPMorgan warns against expecting a repeat of last year’s 120% rally post-Q1 and predicts market leadership will diversify, suggesting the current spike might cool off. The odds remain firmly above 90% regardless.
Trading volume for this market is $4,178 in actual USDC daily. It would take $42,558 to move the odds five points, meaning the market is reasonably thick and resistant to large swings from single trades.
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A YES share at 92¢ pays $1 if NVIDIA is the largest company by June 30, a 1.09x return. To justify this bet, you’d need to believe AI chip demand sustains current momentum with no major setbacks like export curbs or supply chain disruptions.
NVIDIA’s Q1 earnings report is the next major catalyst. Jensen Huang’s announcements and any new US-China trade policy developments could move this contract in either direction.
+65.5% (FY ended 2026-01-25 vs FY ended 2025-01-26) 10-K
Annual net income
120,067,000,000 USD (FY ended 2026-01-25, attributable to the company) 10-K
Annual operating margin
60.4% (FY ended 2026-01-25)
Forward P/E
Unavailable: no dated forecast source
Gloria daily close for session Oct 30, 2026. Market cap and trailing P/E use this close with the SEC share total and trailing diluted earnings, each dated next to its figure. Annual revenue, revenue growth, net income and margin show their own fiscal period and link the 10-K. Current context may postdate this article.
4,335,000,000FY ended 2025-12-27, attributable to the company · 10-K
10.7%FY ended 2025-12-27
Missing figures stay unavailable. Forward P/E requires a dated source. Annual revenue, revenue growth, net income and margin come from each company's own 10-K, in US dollars, and each row shows that fiscal year. Revenue growth compares the fiscal year with the prior year stated in the same 10-K. Net income is the full year amount attributable to the company, or available to common stockholders where the filing states only that, or consolidated net income. Each row names its basis. Trailing P/E reads "Not meaningful" when the dated trailing diluted EPS is a loss or zero. An operating margin appears only when the filing states both the operating income and the revenue for the same year.
Sources: SEC filings, Gloria daily closes and CoinGecko. Oldest record refresh: Nov 1, 2026, 1:06 AM EST. Refresh is not a price or filing date. Each row shows its price date and its annual fiscal period. Peers use industry code and company size, or editorial selection. Market cap multiplies that row price by the company share total the latest SEC filing states for every share class together. Trailing P/E divides it by trailing diluted earnings from SEC filings. Rolled earnings per share are approximate because share counts can change between periods. Both appear only when the SEC data carries its date, so they are estimates at one price date, not synchronized filing valuations. Not investment advice.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
