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The Iranian conflict drags on with no resolution in sight. Odds for a ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 1.8% YES, down from 8% just a day ago.
Traders are adjusting expectations across related markets. The April 7 market reflects near-zero confidence in a quick resolution. The April 15 market also fell sharply to 8.5% YES from 18%. A significant 22-point jump is noted between April 30 and May 31, indicating traders expect a potential catalyst during this period.
Ceasefire markets have seen $4.5M in face value over the last 24 hours, with $536K in actual USDC. The cost to move the market by 5 percentage points varies, with the April 7 market needing $25,832, showing susceptibility to large trades, while May 31 requires $68,121, indicating more stability.
The absence of new developments or official statements suggests current odds mirror existing pessimism about diplomatic progress. With the April 7 deadline near, a YES share at 2¢ pays $1 if a ceasefire occurs — a 50x return. This would require belief in a sudden diplomatic breakthrough, which seems unlikely.
Watch for actions from intermediaries like Oman and Qatar, and any changes in rhetoric from US or Iranian leaders. The UN’s decision on April 2 regarding force to secure shipping lanes could also influence odds if it increases international pressure for negotiations.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.8% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 8.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 23.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 45.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 57.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 70.5% YES
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