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Trump’s military actions haven’t dislodged Iran from the Strait of Hormuz. Ceasefire by April 7 is now at 1.4% YES, down from 2% yesterday and 12% a week ago.
The odds for a US-Iran ceasefire have dropped. With Iran still holding the chokepoint, traders doubt any quick resolution. The April 15 market is at 6.5% YES, and the April 30 market fell to 19.5%. Optimism doesn’t rise until May 31, with odds at 38.5% YES.
Trading reflects this bearish outlook. Real USDC volume is $438,085, far below the $3.6M face value. It takes $18,876 in USDC to move the April 7 odds five points. A 4-point drop in the May 31 market shows traders adjusting to Iran’s control over the strait.
Iran’s grip on the Strait of Hormuz signals no imminent ceasefire. Traders expect ongoing military tension. A YES share at 1.4¢ pays $1 if a ceasefire is announced by April 7, but odds suggest a major diplomatic shift is unlikely in four days.
Watch for statements from CENTCOM or diplomatic moves from Oman and Qatar. Any change in rhetoric or talks could shift the market quickly.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.4% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 19.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 38.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 55.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 70.5% YES
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