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Following President Trump’s recent address, the probability of US forces entering Iran by April 30 rose to 63% YES, up from 50%.
Traders reacted quickly to Trump’s comments on Operation Epic Fury, anticipating ground involvement beyond airstrikes. The April 30 market saw a 10% increase in the past day. The December 31 market remains at 70% YES, while the March 31 market is negligible at 0.1% YES.
Trading volume is high, with $2.37M in USDC daily. The April 30 sub-market needs $328K to shift odds 5 points, showing strong institutional interest. A notable 6-point drop occurred at 1:12 AM, likely due to a large trade.
This shift suggests a move from air/naval operations to potential ground involvement. A YES share at 63¢ pays $1 if resolved, offering a 1.6x return. Confidence in this outcome depends on military escalation or a new announcement within 28 days.
Watch for statements from CENTCOM or Pentagon, new troop movements, or Congressional discussions. Trump’s next actions will shape market expectations.
Markets Impacted
- US forces enter Iran by March 31? — currently 0.1% YES
- US forces enter Iran by April 30? — currently 60.5% YES
- US forces enter Iran by December 31? — currently 70.0% YES
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