The Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that handles roughly 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas supply, is back in play.

A framework deal between the US and Iran, confirmed on June 14-15 by President Donald Trump, Iranian officials, and Pakistani mediators, has sent benchmark crude prices into a nosedive. West Texas Intermediate fell approximately 5% to around $80-81 per barrel, while Brent dropped about 4% to roughly $83 per barrel, hitting three-month lows.

The deal, the drop, and the domino effect

For the past four months, the conflict between the US and Iran had choked off one of the world’s most critical shipping lanes. Brent crude had surged above $120 per barrel earlier in 2026 when the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed.

The agreement aims to reopen the Strait for commercial shipping and kickstart negotiations around Iran’s nuclear program. Asian refiners, particularly those in India, are already reassessing their positions on Iranian crude purchases. The prospect of sanctions relief has opened a window that buyers haven’t had in months. Estimates tied to the potential purchasing activity reference figures in the ballpark of $24 billion.

Prior to the deal, supply concerns had already been pushing WTI below $96. Now, with a diplomatic pathway established, the market is pricing in a scenario where Iranian oil flows resume at meaningful volumes.

Crypto catches the wave

Bitcoin surged above $65,500 following the deal announcement. Previous highs around $77,000 to $82,000 had been hit during earlier rumors of a potential US-Iran agreement. Equities and bonds also rallied on the news.

What this means for investors

The agreement remains interim, with a Memorandum of Understanding signing targeted for June 19 or 20. After that, there’s a 60-day negotiation window where the real details get hammered out.

If sanctions relief materializes and Iranian barrels start flowing freely, oil could have further room to fall. That would be a headwind for energy stocks that benefited from the conflict premium but a tailwind for transportation, manufacturing, and consumer-facing sectors that have been squeezed by high fuel costs.

The risk: negotiations collapse, the Strait closes again, and oil spikes back toward $120. That scenario would reverse nearly every trade that’s been put on since the deal was announced.