Oil futures stable amid rising US-Iran peace deal optimism

Oil futures stayed in a tight range as optimism for a U.S.-Iran peace deal increased. Crude Oil hitting $90 by June sits at 36% YES.

Market reaction

The response to potential de-escalation was muted. Crude Oil Price Predictions by End of June remain at 36% YES, with traders showing caution about the durability of diplomatic efforts. With 76 days left in the market, most participants appear to be waiting for concrete developments before adjusting positions.

The Trump military operations market sits at 36% YES for a March 1 conclusion, showing moderate confidence in a diplomatic resolution. The chance of Trump agreeing to Iranian demands by April is also at 36%. Trading volume reached $23,370 in actual USDC over the past 24 hours, and a $497 order moved prices by 5 points, a sign of thin liquidity.

Why it matters

Peace hopes haven’t translated into conviction. At 36¢, a YES share on Trump agreeing to sanctions relief pays $1, a 2.78x return. That price implies traders think there’s roughly a one-in-three chance peace talks produce real concessions within the month.

What to watch

Statements from U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff or Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Any confirmation of resumed talks or formal agreements could move these odds quickly.

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