Oil price hits $110 as Strait of Hormuz closure impacts global flows

Oil prices have climbed to $110 per barrel amid uncertainty in US-Iran talks, and the Polymarket contract on crude oil reaching an all-time high by April 30 sits at 0.5% YES, up slightly from previous levels. The WTI Crude Oil April 2026 market is also active, with traders eyeing a potential 15% increase in likelihood given current volatility.

Market reaction

The rise to $110 follows the Strait of Hormuz closure, which affects 20% of global oil flows. The all-time high contract has traded $2,513 in USDC over the last 24 hours, making it a thin market. The largest price move was a 1-point spike during early morning trading, suggesting even small trades can shift the contract price at this volume level.

The market predicting oil prices to hit $90 by end of June is less informative given that the current price already exceeds that threshold, but it reflects a broader expectation of sustained high prices as geopolitical tensions persist. The odds of an all-time high remain low at 0.5%, showing trader skepticism about a rapid move beyond $120 even with the Hormuz disruption.

Why it matters

Buying YES at 0.5¢ pays $1 if crude oil exceeds $120 by April 30, a 200x return. But the current conditions would need to escalate well beyond a closed strait for this to pay off. The market’s thinness means individual trades can move the price noticeably, so percentage shifts here don’t necessarily signal a real change in consensus.

What to watch

Traders should monitor OPEC+ production quota decisions and any new US sanctions activity. Movement toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz would likely compress prices on these contracts. Any shift in diplomatic or military developments between the US and Iran is the primary catalyst either direction.

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