Oil prices remain stable as U.S. and Iran talks proceed while ceasefire violations continue. Ceasefire by April 15 is at 100% YES.

Market reaction

The April 15 market surged from 18% a week ago to 100%, a move likely driven by high-level talks and intermediary activity. All sub-markets from April to December sit at 100% YES, with no change in odds across the term structure. The April 30 market moved from 34% a week ago to 100%, consistent with the rest of the curve.

USDC volume in the last 24 hours is $3.23M. The May 31 market alone accounts for over $2.3M/day, pointing to institutional-grade participation. The flat price action across all contracts suggests the market is pricing in stability rather than reacting to new information.

Why it matters

The 100% odds look disconnected from conditions on the ground. Both sides continue to accuse each other of violations, and the truce’s scope remains disputed. Continued attacks suggest this is a pause, not a resolution. A YES share at 100¢ pays $1 if the ceasefire holds, but any breakdown in talks or escalation in hostilities could trigger a sharp correction from a price that leaves zero room for doubt.

What to watch

Statements from Trump, Rubio, and Hegseth, along with intermediaries Oman and Qatar. Any shift in rhetoric, confirmation of formal talks, or a reported escalation could move these markets quickly from their current ceiling.

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