Over 30% of Bitcoin supply dormant for 5+ years amid market volatility

Over 30% of Bitcoin’s supply has been unmoved for more than five years, and the Polymarket contract for Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by December 31, 2026, is at 38% YES, up from 30% a week ago.

That dormant supply reinforces a scarcity argument, but U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran have pushed risk-off sentiment into crypto markets. The odds for Bitcoin hitting $150,000 by the same date sit at 10% YES, suggesting traders see a much lower probability of a larger breakout.

The $100,000 market has 24-hour USDC volume of $2,187, with $10,824 needed to move the price by 5 points. The $150,000 sub-market is thinner: only $2,129 moves it 5 points, making that contract more prone to volatility on relatively small trades.

The Federal Reserve’s rate hold and rising geopolitical tensions both weigh on high-beta assets like Bitcoin. At the same time, long-term holder behavior points to constrained liquid supply. At 38%, a YES share pays $1 if Bitcoin hits $100,000, a potential 2.63x return. The trade-off is straightforward: scarcity dynamics versus macro headwinds.

Watch for moves by institutional holders like BlackRock and MicroStrategy, and any escalation or de-escalation in Middle East tensions. Either could shift these contracts meaningfully in the coming weeks.

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