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Pakistan and Egypt are mediating talks between the US and Iran to prevent attacks on Iranian facilities. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 market is at 1% YES, down from 2% a day ago.
The April 7 odds are scraping the bottom, with just four days left. The April 15 market shows slightly more optimism at 6% YES, though it’s still a long shot, having slipped from 8% yesterday. The April 30 market is more active, sitting at 18% YES, down from 24% the previous day. The biggest jump in odds is between April 30 and May 31, where it climbs 19 points, indicating the possibility of a catalyst in late May.
Trading volume shows cautious interest. While face value across these markets hits $3.7M/day, actual USDC traded is $430K. The April 30 market is the most liquid short-term bet, with $196,968 in actual USDC daily and $19,938 needed to move the price 5 points. This suggests moderately deep order books, but not impervious to large orders.
The mediation efforts by Pakistan and Egypt signal a diplomatic push but come from a tier-3 source, making traders hesitant to weigh it heavily. With April 7 only four days away, it’s seen as noise rather than a game-changer. However, if these talks lead to concrete outcomes, they could shift the narrative for later dates. A YES share for a ceasefire by April 30 at 18¢ pays $1 if it resolves, a 5.5x return that requires significant belief in rapid de-escalation.
Watch for statements from US envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi. An announcement of resumed direct talks or specific concessions could jolt these markets significantly.
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