Pakistan brokers temporary Iran-US ceasefire ahead of Trump’s deadline

Pakistan has secured a temporary ceasefire between Iran and the US. The market for a ceasefire by April 15 is at 100.0% YES, up from 12% just 24 hours ago.

The truce, brokered by Pakistan just ahead of President Trump’s deadline, has moved related markets sharply. The April 30 market has jumped to 100.0% YES, up from 26% yesterday. The longer-term May 31 and June 30 markets have also hit 100.0% YES, as traders price in confidence that the diplomatic track will hold.

Trading volume on the April 15 market alone is at $1,385,525 in USDC daily. A 24-point spike in odds at 10:34 PM points to a single large wave of buying tied to the ceasefire announcement.

Why it matters: Pakistan’s mediation, with last-minute pressure from China, has changed the calculus. The temporary ceasefire removes the immediate risk of military escalation. Traders are now pricing a diplomatic solution within the next two weeks as near-certain. A YES share at 100¢ offers no upside, but it confirms the market treats the truce as real.

What to watch: Talks resume in Islamabad on April 10. Statements from Trump and intermediaries like Oman and Qatar will matter most. Any hardening of rhetoric or delay in discussions could reopen these markets.

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