Pakistan mediates US-Iran ceasefire talks amid market volatility

Pakistan is acting as intermediary in US-Iran ceasefire negotiations hosted in Islamabad. The ceasefire extension market for April 21 sits at 29.5% YES, down from 84% yesterday.

The April 21 sub-market dropped nearly 20 points in a day, with $9,463 in order book depth required to move the price 5 points. The US-Iran permanent peace deal market for April 22 is at 19.5% YES, up from 16% a week ago but still low.

The ceasefire broken announcement market is at 17.5% YES, more than doubling from 8% yesterday. Only $498 is needed to shift those odds, so the market is thin and reactive to any news.

Pakistan does not recognize Israel, which complicates its position as a mediator between the US and Iran. The simultaneous drop in ceasefire extension odds and spike in ceasefire-broken odds suggests traders see real risk that talks could collapse before April 21. A YES share on the extension market at 29.5¢ pays $1 if the ceasefire is extended, a 1.54x return.

Watch for official statements from President Trump or Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif. Any confirmation of a ceasefire extension or a breakdown in talks will move these markets fast.

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