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Pakistan has proposed leading negotiations to keep the Strait of Hormuz open amid the US-Israel-Iran conflict. The market for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 is at
The April 15 market has hit 100% YES, meaning traders treat a short-term ceasefire as a settled outcome. The move from 18% a week ago to 100% happened rapidly. The April 30 and May 31 markets also sit at 100% YES, showing no perceived risk of the ceasefire collapsing after April 15.
Combined 24-hour USDC trade volume across these markets is $3,232,549. The thick order books point to institutional-scale capital committed to the ceasefire expectation. Pakistan’s potential role as intermediary, given its direct economic dependence on strait traffic, may be one factor driving this confidence.
Pakistan’s economy is directly exposed to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which explains its willingness to step into a mediating role. At current odds, buying YES shares offers no payout. But the market’s 100% certainty could prove premature if talks break down or military escalation resumes.
Traders should watch for outcomes from today’s talks in Islamabad. Key signals: any shift in rhetoric from the US or Iran, specific de-escalation commitments, or further intermediary engagement from Pakistan or other regional actors.
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