Stripe and private equity firm Advent International have lobbed a $53 billion takeover bid at PayPal, offering $60.50 per share. Shareholders, led vocally by Michael Burry, think the price is insulting. Prediction markets think it’s happening regardless.

On Polymarket, the probability of the deal closing has climbed to roughly 80%. The offer represents a 28% premium over PayPal’s last closing price of $47.37, which sounds generous until you remember this is a company that traded above $300 at its pandemic peak.

The bid and the backlash

Reuters reported on July 15, 2026 that Stripe and Advent had submitted a joint takeover proposal backed by approximately $50 billion in bank financing. PayPal shares surged between 13% and 19% in early trading on the news.

Burry, the “Big Short” investor, estimated PayPal’s intrinsic value between $75 and $115 per share. His best guess sits around $100, which would imply the Stripe-Advent consortium is trying to buy the company at roughly 60 cents on the dollar. He confirmed he’s holding his shares and not tendering into the offer.

None of the three parties, PayPal, Stripe, or Advent, have issued formal public statements about the bid as of the announcement date.

A deal that won’t take no for an answer

This isn’t Stripe’s first approach. An earlier acquisition attempt was made back in April 2026 and went completely unanswered by PayPal’s board. The fact that Stripe and Advent came back with a formal, fully financed offer just three months later suggests they’re not treating silence as rejection.

Their reported target is to reach an agreement by the end of July 2026, giving PayPal’s board roughly two weeks to evaluate the proposal.

For context, if completed, this would rank among the largest fintech acquisitions ever. It would combine Stripe’s developer-first payment infrastructure with PayPal’s consumer-facing wallet and its 400-million-plus user base.

What this means for crypto and fintech investors

Both companies have deep roots in digital assets. PayPal launched crypto buying and selling for US users back in 2020 and later introduced its own stablecoin, PayPal USD (PYUSD). Stripe re-enabled crypto payments in 2024 after years on the sidelines and has been expanding its stablecoin infrastructure.

No direct impact on crypto token prices has materialized yet, which makes sense given the deal hasn’t been accepted. But the prediction market signal is hard to ignore. An 80% implied probability on Polymarket means traders with real money at stake think this gets done, even if not at $60.50.