Nine accounts on Polymarket have collectively earned over $2.4 million from more than 80 bets on US military operations involving Iran, hitting a 98% win rate. The finding, uncovered by blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps, was featured on CBS’s 60 Minutes and adds fuel to an already blazing debate about whether prediction markets have become a playground for people with access to classified information.

The accounts in question placed bets at high odds just before critical geopolitical events unfolded. Bubblemaps identified additional clusters of accounts beyond the initial nine. One group pulled in $1.4 million on an April 2026 Iran ceasefire bet. Another netted over $600,000 by correctly timing a June 2025 strike.

Nicolas Vaiman, co-founder of Bubblemaps, stated that the insider trading potential in these accounts exceeds that of the already-indicted Van Dyke case.

The total volume of bets placed on Polymarket related to US military actions in Iran and Venezuela has surpassed $1 billion in 2026 alone.

The Van Dyke indictment set the stage

On April 23, 2026, US Army Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke was indicted for allegedly profiting approximately $410,000 from bets placed using classified information about the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro in January of that year. The Van Dyke case was the first time federal prosecutors directly connected military insider knowledge to prediction market profits.

Polymarket, which operates as a decentralized prediction market built on Polygon, allows users to place bets on real-world events using crypto. The platform’s structure relies on blockchain-based transactions rather than traditional brokerage accounts, and while blockchain analytics firms like Bubblemaps can trace connections between accounts, enforcement requires identifying the actual humans behind those wallets.