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3h DeepMind CEO highlights China’s AI advancements challenging Google’s dominance
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
3h DeepMind CEO highlights China’s AI advancements challenging Google’s dominance
▲ Best AI model by may
100% (was 0%, ▲100¢ in 3h)
NO ▲2¢
Meta platforms stock price predictions
1 article
Developing
0%
▼2¢
1h Meta faces challenges amid Iran conflict, AI spending, and ad business shifts
YES ▲1¢
Iran military action
4 articles
Developing
2%
▲1¢
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire 1% FLAT
25m Iran warns of unprecedented military action over US vessel seizures
1h Israel deploys advanced defense systems to UAE amid Iran tensions
2h IDF struggles with Hezbollah drone threat, impacting Lebanon withdrawal plans
YES ▲1¢
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
3 articles
Developing
2%
▲1¢
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire 1% FLAT
35m Iran reviews Trump’s negotiation request, potential diplomatic shift
2h Rubio rejects Iranian proposal to reopen Strait of Hormuz, tensions persist
3h Trump emphasizes Rubio’s role in ongoing US-Iran negotiations
YES ▲1¢
US-Iran ceasefire
2 articles
Developing
2%
▲1¢
1h US-Iran ceasefire extended indefinitely, halting war authorization countdown
✓ 32h Iran accuses US of maritime piracy, impacting ceasefire talks
Likely YES
Reza pahlavi entry into Iran
1 article
Developing
6%
⚡ Iran leadership change 41% FLAT
⚡ Iranian regime fall 0% FLAT
5m Iran’s political system showing signs of internal collapse: EU official
Likely NO
Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline
2 articles
Developing
2%
▼0¢
8m Powell to stay on Fed board, delaying leadership changes
✓ 23h Trump backs Warsh as Fed Chair, Senate panel advances nomination
Likely NO
Largest company by market cap predictions
4 articles
Developing
78%
▼0¢
10m Tim Cook warns of rising memory costs amid US-China tensions
✓ 21h Apple iPhone revenue jumps 22% to $57B amid chip shortages
2h Nvidia may surpass Apple as largest company by market cap, odds suggest
Likely NO
Trump's visit to China
1 article
Developing
80%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump visit to China 0% FLAT
15m China eases rare earth restrictions, boosting odds of Trump visit by May 31
Likely NO
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
20m ECB holds rates amid Iran conflict, oil prices may hit $150 in May
1h US economy grows 2% as layoffs hit 55-year low amid inflation concerns
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for april 30
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin above on april 30 100% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 2 100% FLAT
30m White House hints at Bitcoin reserve announcement, boosting price confidence
52m Crypto hacks hit record high in April 2026, impacting Bitcoin, Ethereum sentiment
Likely NO
Crude oil price predictions by june
4 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
1h Iran tensions drive oil price prediction to $90 by June
2h Geopolitical tensions, SPR releases fail to sway oil $90 prediction by June
3h Venezuelan oil boost lowers odds of $160 WTI crude by April 2026
Likely NO
US GDP growth Q1 2026
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
1h US GDP grows 2.0% in Q1 2026, AI investments drive 75% of increase
Likely NO
Anthropic mythos provision to US government
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
1h White House blocks Anthropic’s Mythos expansion over security concerns
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic
1 article
Developing
41%
▼0¢
✓ 21h Strait of Hormuz closure disrupts energy, pharma supplies amid US-Iran conflict
Likely NO
Nobel peace prize winner 2026
1 article
Developing
19%
▼0¢
1h Trump nominated for 2026 Nobel Peace Prize with support from Cambodia, Israel, Pakistan
Likely NO
Largest company by december 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
1%
▼0¢
✓ 22h Alphabet market cap surges $0.4T after strong earnings, challenges Microsoft
Likely NO
DHS shutdown end dates
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
✓ 22h Trump ends 76-day government shutdown with DHS funding bill
Likely NO
Bitcoin above on april 30
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin future price predictions 5% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 1 100% FLAT
2h US Secretary of War endorses Bitcoin as strategic power tool amid China rivalry
Likely NO
Trump's Iranian demands in april
1 article
· 2h ago
14%
▼0¢
2h Trump criticizes NYT, CNN for ‘seditious’ Iran war coverage amid stalled talks
Likely NO
Jimmy kimmel fired/resigns
1 article
· 2h ago
7%
▼0¢
2h FCC clarifies Disney TV license review focuses on DEI, not Kimmel remarks
Likely NO
Fall of the Iranian regime
1 article
· 2h ago
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Reza pahlavi entry into Iran 6% FLAT
⚡ Iran leadership change 41% FLAT
2h Iran asserts control over Strait of Hormuz, impacting global energy supplies
Likely NO
Military actions against Iran
2 articles
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran military action 100% FLAT
2h US seeks hypersonic missile deployment amid Iran tensions: Bloomberg
3h Trump claims Iran’s military severely weakened amid ongoing US-Israel campaign
Likely NO
James comey sentenced to prison in 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
2h Legal experts question validity of Comey indictment over Instagram post
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 2
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin above on april 30 100% FLAT
2h US stocks rally on strong earnings despite US-Iran tensions
Likely NO
Starmer out timing
1 article
· 2h ago
42%
▼0¢
2h Reform UK eyes gains as Starmer faces pressure ahead of May 2026 elections
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
14%
▼0¢
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting 34% FLAT
2h US warns of sanctions on Iranian airlines amid rising geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
Largest company by end of april
1 article
· 2h ago
78%
▼0¢
⚡ Largest company by market cap predictions 68% FLAT
2h Nvidia stock hits all-time high as AI momentum boosts market cap prospects
Likely NO
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
1 article
· 2h ago
41%
▼0¢
2h Strait of Hormuz blockade strands 20,000 seafarers amid US-Iran tensions
Likely NO
Ethereum price in april
1 article
· 3h ago
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum future price predictions 4% FLAT
⚡ Ethereum price on april 30 0% FLAT
✓ 33h Crypto hacks in April hit record high, impact Ethereum price sentiment
Likely NO
Iran leadership change
1 article
· 3h ago
15%
▼0¢
3h Iranian leaders push to dismiss foreign minister amid internal power struggle
Likely NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium
1 article
· 3h ago
10%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran's enriched uranium surrender 0% FLAT
3h Leaked intel contradicts Trump’s claim of obliterating Iran’s nuclear program
Likely NO
Trump out as president
1 article
· 3h ago
0%
▼0¢
3h Collins breaks with GOP on Iran war powers, signals potential party fracture
Likely NO
Brazil presidential election 2026
1 article
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
✓ 24h Brazil Congress overrides Lula veto, boosting Bolsonaro allies ahead of 2026 election