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2h Iran warns of unprecedented military action over US vessel seizures
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
2h Iran warns of unprecedented military action over US vessel seizures
▲ Iran military action
9% (was 1%, ▲8¢ in 2h)
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire: 1% FLAT
YES ▲8¢
Iran military action
3 articles
· 2h ago
9%
▲8¢
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire 1% FLAT
2h 3h Israel deploys advanced defense systems to UAE amid Iran tensions
3h IDF struggles with Hezbollah drone threat, impacting Lebanon withdrawal plans
YES ▲8¢
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
· 2h ago
9%
▲8¢
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire 1% FLAT
2h Iran reviews Trump’s negotiation request, potential diplomatic shift
NO ▲2¢
US-Iran ceasefire
3 articles
Developing
9%
▼2¢
18m Trump admin views Iran ceasefire as War Powers reset, avoiding Congress approval
2h US-Iran ceasefire extended indefinitely, halting war authorization countdown
✓ 33h Iran accuses US of maritime piracy, impacting ceasefire talks
NO ▲2¢
Meta platforms stock price predictions
1 article
· 2h ago
0%
▼2¢
2h Meta faces challenges amid Iran conflict, AI spending, and ad business shifts
NO ▲2¢
Trump's Iranian demands in april
1 article
· 4h ago
12%
▼2¢
4h Trump criticizes NYT, CNN for ‘seditious’ Iran war coverage amid stalled talks
YES ▲1¢
Largest company by market cap predictions
5 articles
Developing
79%
▲1¢
✓ 21h Apple earnings boost market confidence, dims Nvidia’s top market cap chances
1h Tim Cook warns of rising memory costs amid US-China tensions
✓ 23h Apple iPhone revenue jumps 22% to $57B amid chip shortages
NO ▲1¢
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions
1 article
Developing
8%
▼1¢
1h Ukrainian drone strike hits Russian Black Sea port, escalating tensions
NO ▲1¢
Ethereum price in april
1 article
Developing
0%
▼1¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for april 30 1% FLAT
1h North Korea’s Lazarus Group hacks $635M from crypto protocols in April
YES ▲1¢
Trump's visit to China
1 article
Developing
81%
▲1¢
⚡ Trump visit to China 0% FLAT
1h China eases rare earth restrictions, boosting odds of Trump visit by May 31
NO ▲1¢
Fall of the Iranian regime
1 article
· 4h ago
3%
▼1¢
⚡ Reza pahlavi entry into Iran 6% FLAT
⚡ Iran leadership change 41% FLAT
4h Iran asserts control over Strait of Hormuz, impacting global energy supplies
NO ▲1¢
Starmer out timing
1 article
· 4h ago
41%
▼1¢
4h Reform UK eyes gains as Starmer faces pressure ahead of May 2026 elections
Likely NO
James comey sentenced to prison in 2026
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
2m Comey prosecution faces First Amendment hurdles, experts say
4h Legal experts question validity of Comey indictment over Instagram post
Likely NO
Bitcoin above on april 30
3 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 1 100% FLAT
4m US defense secretary endorses Bitcoin, integrating it into defense strategies
24m US stocks rise as S&P 500, NASDAQ see biggest monthly gains in years
4h US Secretary of War endorses Bitcoin as strategic power tool amid China rivalry
Likely NO
XRP price on april 30
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
9m CLARITY Act expected to reach President’s desk this summer, says Tim Scott
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic
3 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
12m US gas prices hit $4.3 amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions, Trump comments on war end
1h Iran conflict closes Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global oil and food supply
✓ 23h Strait of Hormuz closure disrupts energy, pharma supplies amid US-Iran conflict
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for april 30
3 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 1 100% FLAT
⚡ Ethereum price predictions for april 30 1% FLAT
28m Bitcoin volatility spikes post-FOMC as market doubts $79K target
✓ 22h White House hints at Bitcoin reserve announcement, boosting price confidence
2h Crypto hacks hit record high in April 2026, impacting Bitcoin, Ethereum sentiment
Likely NO
DHS shutdown end dates
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
45m US House passes DHS funding bill, ending 75-day partial shutdown
✓ 23h Trump ends 76-day government shutdown with DHS funding bill
Likely NO
Largest company by end of april
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
47m Huawei AI chip sales surge as Nvidia loses ground in China: FT
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
1 article
Developing
20%
▼0¢
52m Iran threat boosts Brent crude futures to $111.4 amid geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline
2 articles
Developing
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Kevin warsh Fed chair confirmation 0% FLAT
1h Senate advances Kevin Warsh’s Fed Chair nomination, Powell exit likely by May 31
✓ 21h Powell to stay on Fed board, delaying leadership changes
Likely NO
Bitcoin future price predictions
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 1 100% FLAT
1h Kevin Warsh nomination impacts Bitcoin price outlook amid hawkish stance
Likely NO
Reza pahlavi entry into Iran
1 article
Developing
9%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran leadership change 41% FLAT
⚡ Iranian regime fall 0% FLAT
1h Iran’s political system showing signs of internal collapse: EU official
Likely NO
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
2 articles
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
2h ECB holds rates amid Iran conflict, oil prices may hit $150 in May
3h US economy grows 2% as layoffs hit 55-year low amid inflation concerns
Likely NO
Crude oil price predictions by june
2 articles
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
2h Iran tensions drive oil price prediction to $90 by June
4h Geopolitical tensions, SPR releases fail to sway oil $90 prediction by June
Likely NO
US GDP growth Q1 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
✓ 22h US GDP grows 2.0% in Q1 2026, AI investments drive 75% of increase
Likely NO
Anthropic mythos provision to US government
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
2h White House blocks Anthropic’s Mythos expansion over security concerns
Likely NO
Nobel peace prize winner 2026
1 article
· 3h ago
19%
▼0¢
3h Trump nominated for 2026 Nobel Peace Prize with support from Cambodia, Israel, Pakistan
Likely NO
Largest company by december 2026
1 article
· 3h ago
1%
▼0¢
✓ 23h Alphabet market cap surges $0.4T after strong earnings, challenges Microsoft
Likely NO
Jimmy kimmel fired/resigns
1 article
· 4h ago
7%
▼0¢
4h FCC clarifies Disney TV license review focuses on DEI, not Kimmel remarks
Likely NO
Military actions against Iran
1 article
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran military action 100% FLAT
4h US seeks hypersonic missile deployment amid Iran tensions: Bloomberg
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 2
1 article
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin above on april 30 100% FLAT
4h US stocks rally on strong earnings despite US-Iran tensions