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23m Iran declares nuclear file closed, demands $270B reparations amid tensions
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
23m Iran declares nuclear file closed, demands $270B reparations amid tensions
▲ US-Iran ceasefire
54% (was 0%, ▲54¢ in 23m)
YES ▲54¢
US-Iran ceasefire
2 articles
Developing
54%
▲54¢
23m 
2h US official: Iran war truce ‘terminated’ hostilities for war powers deadline
YES ▲54¢
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
Developing
54%
▲54¢
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire 0% FLAT
1h Iran rejects US demands, Supreme Leader approves talks amid internal unity
NO ▲2¢
Iran leadership change
2 articles
· 2h ago
11%
▼2¢
2h Iran’s president, parliament seek to dismiss FM Araghchi amid IRGC influence
3h Iran regime solidifies power under IRGC control after US-Israeli strikes
NO ▲2¢
Largest company by market cap predictions
1 article
· 2h ago
77%
▼2¢
✓ 22h Apple sales success challenges Nvidia’s market cap lead by June 30
NO ▲1¢
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
6 articles
Developing
39%
▼1¢
10m White House considers extending Iran blockade, impacting WTI crude prices
16m Iranian tankers evade US blockade, deliver 4M barrels to Asia
2h Pakistan tanker exits Strait of Hormuz amid US-Iran tension easing
NO ▲1¢
Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
· 3h ago
40%
▼1¢
3h Iran demands accountability from Gulf states amid ongoing conflict
NO ▲1¢
Military actions against Iran
1 article
· 4h ago
8%
▼1¢
4h White House considers seeking war authorization for Iran conflict
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for april 30
3 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price targets 0% FLAT
5m Bitcoin upside capped by $82K sell wall after UAE exits OPEC
4h Bitcoin hits $77,000 amid US-Israel-Iran tensions, oil prices surge
4h Bitcoin breaks four-year May decline pattern, hits $77,000 amid tensions
Likely NO
Bitcoin price targets
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 1 100% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for april 30 0% FLAT
9m Bitcoin holds above $77,000 amid ETF outflows, geopolitical tensions
✓ 34h Bitcoin ETFs see $14.7M inflow as Ethereum outflows continue
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions
2 articles
Developing
6%
▼0¢
19m Ukraine, Norway to produce drones amid Russia conflict escalation
3h Russia-Ukraine ceasefire unlikely near term, ISW report suggests
Likely NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
1 article
Developing
6%
▼0¢
49m Ukraine drone edge complicates ceasefire prospects by June 2026
Likely NO
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
2 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 3% FLAT
50m Iran-US conflict escalates, oil hits $125, impacting Fed rate cut outlook
4h US inflation jumps in March amid Iran war, Trump tariffs impact
Likely NO
US invasion of Iran
2 articles
Developing
10%
▼0¢
⚡ US obtains Iranian enriched uranium 10% FLAT
54m Trump briefed on military options as Iran conflict escalates
2h US presents new military options to Trump amid Iran tensions
Likely NO
Anthropic mythos provision to US government
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
56m White House pushes for AI cyber defense amid Anthropic market surge
Likely NO
Bitcoin above on april 30
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
57m Trump briefed on Iran military options, impacting Bitcoin, oil markets
3h SEC Chair Atkins announces pro-crypto policy shift at Bitcoin 2026
Likely NO
Crude oil price predictions by june
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
1h UAE exits OPEC, crude oil prices expected to rise amid supply concerns
2h Middle East conflict drives oil price forecast to hit $90 by June
Likely NO
Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline
1 article
Developing
1%
▼0¢
1h Jerome Powell to remain on Fed board, Warsh expected as next chair
Likely NO
Kevin warsh Fed chair confirmation
1 article
Developing
1%
▼0¢
⚡ Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline 1% FLAT
1h Warsh nomination as Fed Chair may lead to leadership change by May 31
Likely NO
Solana price in april
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
1h Solana sees $40M net inflows in April 2026 amid geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
Jimmy kimmel fired/resigns
1 article
Developing
7%
▼0¢
1h FCC review of ABC licenses intensifies pressure on Jimmy Kimmel
Likely NO
Israel withdraws from lebanon
2 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
1h Israeli shelling on Labour Day escalates tensions in Lebanon
4h Israel orders evacuation of Lebanese towns ahead of planned military strikes
Likely NO
Bitcoin price april 27-may 3
1 article
Developing
0%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for april 30 0% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price targets 0% FLAT
1h $6.8B in Bitcoin long positions at risk of liquidation amid market downturn
Likely NO
Largest company by december 2026
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Largest company by end of april 100% FLAT
⚡ Meta platforms stock price predictions 0% FLAT
1h US tech giants report strong Q1 earnings driven by AI, cloud investments
Likely NO
Starmer out timing
1 article
· 2h ago
41%
▼0¢
2h Labour’s London support declines, challenging Starmer’s leadership ahead of 2026 elections
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 2
2 articles
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 1 100% FLAT
2h Bitcoin expected to stay above $68K despite geopolitical tensions by May 2
2h ECB’s Muller signals potential rate hike amid Middle East energy pressures
Likely NO
Brazil presidential election 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
✓ 22h Brazil cuts Bolsonaro’s jail term, boosting conservative election prospects
Likely NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium
1 article
· 2h ago
10%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire 0% FLAT
2h Trump exits Iran nuclear pact, revives tensions with uranium enrichment
Likely NO
US GDP growth Q1 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
2h US GDP grows 2% in Q1 2026 despite geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
Best AI model by may
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Google stock price predictions 100% FLAT
3h Google Cloud leads AI race as Big Tech invests up to $700B by 2026
Likely NO
Next Israeli prime minister
1 article
· 3h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Netanyahu out 6% FLAT
3h Poll: Bennett, Eisenkot seen as more suitable than Netanyahu for Israeli PM
Likely NO
Iran military action
2 articles
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
3h Trump briefed on Iran strike options as Tehran activates air defenses
3h Iran accelerates missile recovery amid fragile ceasefire with US, Israel
Likely NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal
1 article
· 4h ago
19%
▼0¢
4h Iran extends Strait of Hormuz blockade amid US-Iran peace deal uncertainty