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✓ 123h Trump dissatisfied with Iran proposal, ceasefire market drops YES
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
✓ 123h Trump dissatisfied with Iran proposal, ceasefire market drops YES
▼ US-Iran ceasefire
10% (was 12%, ▼2¢ in 3h)
NO ▲2¢
US-Iran ceasefire
2 articles
· 3h ago
10%
▼2¢
✓ 123h ✓ 25h Trump faces deadline on Iran military operations under War Powers Resolution
NO ▲2¢
US withdrawal from NATO timeline
1 article
· 3h ago
10%
▼2¢
3h Trump considers US troop withdrawal from Germany, Italy, Spain amid NATO tensions
NO ▲1¢
Iran military action
2 articles
Developing
6%
▼1¢
⚡ Russia x Ukraine ceasefire 11% FLAT
55m Ukraine deepens strikes on Russian oil targets, tensions rise
2h IDF struggles with Hezbollah drones, complicating Israel’s Lebanon withdrawal
NO ▲1¢
Dissent at april Fed meeting
1 article
Developing
2%
▼1¢
⚡ Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline 2% FLAT
1h Bitcoin surges past $78K as Powell chairs final Fed meeting
NO ▲1¢
US invasion of Iran
2 articles
Developing
10%
▼1¢
✓ 41h Trump asserts Iran operations don’t need congressional approval amid tensions
5h US Navy uses AI to counter Iranian mines, easing Strait of Hormuz tensions
NO ▲1¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
1 article
· 4h ago
6%
▼1¢
4h Russia proposes ceasefire as symbolic gesture, Ukraine skeptical
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for april 30
2 articles
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price april 27-may 3 0% FLAT
2h Bitcoin drops as leverage liquidations drive structural downside
4h Bitcoin closes above 21-week trend line amid geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
US declaration of war on Iran
1 article
· 3h ago
8%
▼0¢
3h Trump comments hint at US-Iran tensions amid Strait of Hormuz blockade
Likely NO
Military actions against Iran
1 article
· 3h ago
8%
▼0¢
⚡ US declaration of war on Iran 8% FLAT
✓ 23h Trump downplays US missile inventory concerns amid Iran de-escalation
Likely NO
Reza pahlavi entry into Iran
1 article
· 3h ago
6%
▼0¢
3h Trump administration claims US no longer at war with Iran under War Powers Resolution
Likely NO
Trump's Iranian demands in april
1 article
· 3h ago
6%
▼0¢
✓ 33h US intensifies sanctions on Iran, impacting oil price expectations
Likely NO
WTI crude oil predictions for april 2026
1 article
· 3h ago
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 4% FLAT
3h Iran conflict closes Strait of Hormuz, risks $160 WTI oil price in April 2026
Likely NO
Ethereum price on april 30
1 article
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price predictions for april 30 0% FLAT
4h Ethereum faces pressure as US-Iran talks impact price outlook
Likely NO
Google stock price predictions
1 article
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Largest company by december 2026 1% FLAT
4h Alphabet shares hit all-time high on strong earnings boost
Likely NO
Bab el-mandeb strait closure
1 article
· 4h ago
41%
▼0¢
4h Muted shipping through Strait of Hormuz amid stalled US-Iran talks
Likely NO
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
2 articles
· 4h ago
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 3% FLAT
4h Manufacturing ISM report shows price surge, employment drop amid Fed rate cut talk
5h Iran war disrupts oil exports, US manufacturing costs surge
Likely NO
Israel withdraws from lebanon
1 article
Developing
9%
2m IDF intensifies operations in Lebanon, kills 130 Hezbollah fighters
Likely NO
Starmer out timing
1 article
Developing
42%
▼0¢
28m Wes Streeting prepares to challenge Keir Starmer’s Labour leadership: Telegraph
Likely NO
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
3 articles
Developing
35%
▼0¢
34m Iran inflicts unprecedented damage on US bases, Gulf states reassess alliances
✓ 33h Trump confirms ongoing Iran talks amid Strait of Hormuz tensions
✓ 24h Iran ramps up diplomatic outreach amid US meeting prospects
Likely NO
Iran leadership change
2 articles
Developing
8%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire 0% FLAT
✓ 346m Trump’s dissatisfaction dims Iran leadership change, ceasefire prospects
1h IRGC asserts Supreme Leader to set new Persian Gulf rules amid power shift
Likely NO
Bitcoin future price predictions
1 article
Developing
5%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin above on april 30 100% FLAT
47m CFTC to legalize crypto perpetuals in US, boosting regulatory clarity
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
4 articles
Developing
14%
▼0¢
1h US sanctions Iranian exchanges, Chinese terminal amid Hormuz crisis
✓ 21h WTI crude futures drop $3.1 amid easing US-Iran tensions
3h US imposes new Iran sanctions, warns against Hormuz toll payments
Likely NO
Crude oil price predictions by june
3 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
1h UAE exits OPEC amid Iran conflict, Strait of Hormuz closure impacts oil prices
1h Venezuela crude exports rise, surpass 1M barrels a day in April
4h Venezuela boosts oil exports to US and India amid geopolitical shifts
Likely NO
Trump out as president
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
✓ 21h Trump confirms end of Iran military operations with April 7 ceasefire
✓ 61h Trump ends Iran hostilities, hints at possible future military action
Likely NO
Bitcoin price targets
1 article
Developing
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price on april 30 100% FLAT
1h Ethereum Foundation sells $22.9M ETH, market confidence wanes
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic
1 article
Developing
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 4% FLAT
1h Powell warns high oil prices may impact US economy amid Hormuz tensions
Likely NO
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
2 articles
Developing
41%
▼0¢
1h Iran shuts Strait of Hormuz, stranding 20,000 seafarers amid US tensions
3h Iran accuses US of causing insecurity in Strait of Hormuz amid blockade tensions
Likely NO
Ethereum above on april 30
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price on april 30 100% FLAT
✓ 31h Bitmine buys $234M in Ethereum amid US-Iran conflict tensions
1h Bitmine buys $294M Ethereum ahead of Clarity Act debate in May
Likely NO
Jimmy kimmel fired/resigns
1 article
· 2h ago
6%
▼0¢
2h Melania Trump urges ABC to fire Kimmel over widow joke amid political tensions
Likely NO
Iran diplomatic meetings
1 article
· 3h ago
0%
✓ 43h Trump uncertain about Iran meeting by April 30 amid stalled talks
Likely NO
Fed rate cut timing
2 articles
Developing
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 4% FLAT
1h Powell signals cautious Fed stance, lowering rate cut expectations through 2026
4h Fed holds rates steady amid inflation concerns, Powell highlights Middle East risks
Likely NO
ECB interest rates april 2026
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
1h ECB credit standards tighten amid geopolitical tensions, energy volatility
4h ECB holds rates steady amid inflation risks, market expects cuts by April 2026