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✓ 124h Trump dissatisfied with Iran proposal, ceasefire market drops YES
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
✓ 124h Trump dissatisfied with Iran proposal, ceasefire market drops YES
▼ US-Iran ceasefire
10% (was 12%, ▼2¢ in 4h)
NO ▲2¢
US withdrawal from NATO timeline
1 article
· 4h ago
10%
▼2¢
4h Trump considers US troop withdrawal from Germany, Italy, Spain amid NATO tensions
NO ▲1¢
Reza pahlavi entry into Iran
2 articles
Developing
25%
▼1¢
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting 26% FLAT
✓ 228m Trump signals prolonged US military presence in Iran amid tensions
4h Trump administration claims US no longer at war with Iran under War Powers Resolution
YES ▲1¢
Israel withdraws from lebanon
1 article
Developing
10%
▲1¢
1h IDF intensifies operations in Lebanon, kills 130 Hezbollah fighters
NO ▲1¢
Iran leadership change
2 articles
Developing
7%
▼1¢
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire 0% FLAT
✓ 31h Trump’s dissatisfaction dims Iran leadership change, ceasefire prospects
2h IRGC asserts Supreme Leader to set new Persian Gulf rules amid power shift
NO ▲1¢
Dissent at april Fed meeting
1 article
· 2h ago
2%
▼1¢
⚡ Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline 2% FLAT
2h Bitcoin surges past $78K as Powell chairs final Fed meeting
NO ▲1¢
US invasion of Iran
1 article
· 2h ago
10%
▼1¢
✓ 42h Trump asserts Iran operations don’t need congressional approval amid tensions
Likely NO
Iran diplomatic meetings
1 article
· 4h ago
0%
✓ 44h Trump uncertain about Iran meeting by April 30 amid stalled talks
Likely NO
Iran military action
3 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Fall of the Iranian regime 0% FLAT
5m Iran executes protest figures amid rising unrest and internet crackdown
1h Ukraine deepens strikes on Russian oil targets, tensions rise
3h IDF struggles with Hezbollah drones, complicating Israel’s Lebanon withdrawal
Likely NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium
1 article
Developing
9%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran's enriched uranium surrender 0% FLAT
7m Trump declares end of Iran conflict, uranium deal remains uncertain
Likely NO
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
3 articles
Developing
41%
▼0¢
✓ 219m US blockade costs Iran $4.8B in oil revenue, Pentagon reports
2h Iran shuts Strait of Hormuz, stranding 20,000 seafarers amid US tensions
4h Iran accuses US of causing insecurity in Strait of Hormuz amid blockade tensions
Likely NO
Anthropic mythos provision to US government
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
29m US officials may fast-track AI security deadlines amid cyber threat concerns
Likely NO
Bitcoin above on april 30
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 2 100% FLAT
51m Banks reach compromise on crypto market structure bill, boosting Bitcoin outlook
Likely NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal
1 article
Developing
23%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran's enriched uranium 0% FLAT
57m Trump vows to counter nuclear ambitions amid Iran tensions
Likely NO
Starmer out timing
1 article
Developing
42%
▼0¢
1h Wes Streeting prepares to challenge Keir Starmer’s Labour leadership: Telegraph
Likely NO
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
3 articles
Developing
35%
▼0¢
1h Iran inflicts unprecedented damage on US bases, Gulf states reassess alliances
✓ 34h Trump confirms ongoing Iran talks amid Strait of Hormuz tensions
✓ 25h Iran ramps up diplomatic outreach amid US meeting prospects
Likely NO
Bitcoin future price predictions
1 article
Developing
5%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin above on april 30 100% FLAT
1h CFTC to legalize crypto perpetuals in US, boosting regulatory clarity
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
3 articles
· 2h ago
14%
▼0¢
2h US sanctions Iranian exchanges, Chinese terminal amid Hormuz crisis
✓ 22h WTI crude futures drop $3.1 amid easing US-Iran tensions
✓ 24h US imposes new Iran sanctions, warns against Hormuz toll payments
Likely NO
Crude oil price predictions by june
2 articles
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
2h UAE exits OPEC amid Iran conflict, Strait of Hormuz closure impacts oil prices
2h Venezuela crude exports rise, surpass 1M barrels a day in April
Likely NO
Trump out as president
2 articles
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
✓ 22h Trump confirms end of Iran military operations with April 7 ceasefire
✓ 72h Trump ends Iran hostilities, hints at possible future military action
Likely NO
Bitcoin price targets
1 article
· 2h ago
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price on april 30 100% FLAT
2h Ethereum Foundation sells $22.9M ETH, market confidence wanes
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic
1 article
· 2h ago
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 4% FLAT
2h Powell warns high oil prices may impact US economy amid Hormuz tensions
Likely NO
Fed rate cut timing
2 articles
· 2h ago
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 4% FLAT
2h Powell signals cautious Fed stance, lowering rate cut expectations through 2026
5h Fed holds rates steady amid inflation concerns, Powell highlights Middle East risks
Likely NO
Ethereum above on april 30
2 articles
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price on april 30 100% FLAT
✓ 32h Bitmine buys $234M in Ethereum amid US-Iran conflict tensions
2h Bitmine buys $294M Ethereum ahead of Clarity Act debate in May
Likely NO
ECB interest rates april 2026
2 articles
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
3h ECB credit standards tighten amid geopolitical tensions, energy volatility
5h ECB holds rates steady amid inflation risks, market expects cuts by April 2026
Likely NO
Jimmy kimmel fired/resigns
1 article
· 3h ago
6%
▼0¢
3h Melania Trump urges ABC to fire Kimmel over widow joke amid political tensions
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for april 30
2 articles
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price april 27-may 3 0% FLAT
3h Bitcoin drops as leverage liquidations drive structural downside
5h Bitcoin closes above 21-week trend line amid geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
US declaration of war on Iran
1 article
· 4h ago
8%
▼0¢
4h Trump comments hint at US-Iran tensions amid Strait of Hormuz blockade
Likely NO
Military actions against Iran
1 article
· 4h ago
8%
▼0¢
⚡ US declaration of war on Iran 8% FLAT
✓ 24h Trump downplays US missile inventory concerns amid Iran de-escalation
Likely NO
Trump's Iranian demands in april
1 article
· 4h ago
6%
▼0¢
✓ 34h US intensifies sanctions on Iran, impacting oil price expectations
Likely NO
WTI crude oil predictions for april 2026
1 article
· 4h ago
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 4% FLAT
4h Iran conflict closes Strait of Hormuz, risks $160 WTI oil price in April 2026
Likely NO
Ethereum price on april 30
1 article
· 5h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price predictions for april 30 0% FLAT
5h Ethereum faces pressure as US-Iran talks impact price outlook
Likely NO
Google stock price predictions
1 article
· 5h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Largest company by december 2026 1% FLAT
5h Alphabet shares hit all-time high on strong earnings boost
Likely NO
Bab el-mandeb strait closure
1 article
· 5h ago
41%
▼0¢
5h Muted shipping through Strait of Hormuz amid stalled US-Iran talks