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18m US to withdraw 5,000 troops from Germany amid Iran tensions
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
18m US to withdraw 5,000 troops from Germany amid Iran tensions
▲ Military actions against Iran
100% (was 0%, ▲100¢ in 18m)
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire: 0% FLAT
YES ▲100¢
Military actions against Iran
3 articles
Developing
100%
▲100¢
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire 0% FLAT
18m 1h Iran conflict spikes fuel prices, halts Strait of Hormuz shipping
✓ 25h Trump downplays US missile inventory concerns amid Iran de-escalation
YES ▲1¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium
1 article
Developing
10%
▲1¢
⚡ Iran's enriched uranium surrender 0% FLAT
✓ 21h Trump declares end of Iran conflict, uranium deal remains uncertain
NO ▲1¢
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
2 articles
· 2h ago
34%
▼1¢
2h Iran inflicts unprecedented damage on US bases, Gulf states reassess alliances
✓ 35h Trump confirms ongoing Iran talks amid Strait of Hormuz tensions
NO ▲1¢
Iran leadership change
2 articles
· 3h ago
7%
▼1¢
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire 0% FLAT
✓ 33h Trump’s dissatisfaction dims Iran leadership change, ceasefire prospects
3h IRGC asserts Supreme Leader to set new Persian Gulf rules amid power shift
NO ▲1¢
Dissent at april Fed meeting
1 article
· 3h ago
2%
▼1¢
⚡ Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline 2% FLAT
3h Bitcoin surges past $78K as Powell chairs final Fed meeting
NO ▲1¢
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
2 articles
· 3h ago
13%
▼1¢
3h US sanctions Iranian exchanges, Chinese terminal amid Hormuz crisis
✓ 23h WTI crude futures drop $3.1 amid easing US-Iran tensions
NO ▲1¢
US invasion of Iran
1 article
· 3h ago
10%
▼1¢
✓ 43h Trump asserts Iran operations don’t need congressional approval amid tensions
Likely NO
Reza pahlavi entry into Iran
2 articles
Developing
26%
▼0¢
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting 26% FLAT
✓ 31h Trump signals prolonged US military presence in Iran amid tensions
5h Trump administration claims US no longer at war with Iran under War Powers Resolution
Likely NO
Anthropic mythos provision to US government
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
1h US officials may fast-track AI security deadlines amid cyber threat concerns
Likely NO
Bitcoin above on april 30
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 2 100% FLAT
2h Banks reach compromise on crypto market structure bill, boosting Bitcoin outlook
Likely YES
Crude oil price predictions by june
3 articles
Developing
100%
just now UAE exits OPEC, raising geopolitical tensions and oil price volatility
3h UAE exits OPEC amid Iran conflict, Strait of Hormuz closure impacts oil prices
3h Venezuela crude exports rise, surpass 1M barrels a day in April
Likely NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
1 article
Developing
10%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire 0% FLAT
9m US warns Europe of arms shipment delays amid Iran operations: FT
Likely NO
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
1 article
Developing
34%
▼0¢
13m Exxon output drops 6% amid US-Iran conflict, Strait of Hormuz disruptions persist
Likely NO
Israel withdraws from lebanon
2 articles
Developing
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran military action 100% FLAT
30m Hezbollah refuses to disarm, impacting Israeli withdrawal outlook
2h IDF intensifies operations in Lebanon, kills 130 Hezbollah fighters
Likely NO
Bitcoin future price predictions
2 articles
Developing
5%
▼0¢
41m JP Morgan Chase to accept Bitcoin as collateral for institutional loans
3h CFTC to legalize crypto perpetuals in US, boosting regulatory clarity
Likely NO
James comey sentenced to prison in 2026
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ James comey arrest timeline 100% FLAT
43m James Comey indicted for threatening Trump in Instagram post
Likely NO
Next Israeli prime minister
1 article
Developing
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Netanyahu out 6% FLAT
45m Bennett, Lapid form “Together” bloc, challenging Netanyahu ahead of 2026 elections
Likely NO
XRP price on april 30
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 2 100% FLAT
✓ 21h US senators reach stablecoin yield deal ahead of CLARITY Act markup
Likely NO
US-Iran ceasefire
2 articles
Developing
34%
▼0¢
1h Iran blockade costs $5B in oil revenue as US pressure mounts
✓ 125h Trump dissatisfied with Iran proposal, ceasefire market drops YES
Likely NO
Iran military action
3 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Fall of the Iranian regime 0% FLAT
1h Iran executes protest figures amid rising unrest and internet crackdown
3h Ukraine deepens strikes on Russian oil targets, tensions rise
4h IDF struggles with Hezbollah drones, complicating Israel’s Lebanon withdrawal
Likely NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal
1 article
· 2h ago
23%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran's enriched uranium 0% FLAT
2h Trump vows to counter nuclear ambitions amid Iran tensions
Likely NO
Starmer out timing
1 article
· 2h ago
42%
▼0¢
2h Wes Streeting prepares to challenge Keir Starmer’s Labour leadership: Telegraph
Likely NO
Trump out as president
2 articles
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
✓ 23h Trump confirms end of Iran military operations with April 7 ceasefire
✓ 73h Trump ends Iran hostilities, hints at possible future military action
Likely NO
Bitcoin price targets
1 article
· 3h ago
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price on april 30 100% FLAT
3h Ethereum Foundation sells $22.9M ETH, market confidence wanes
Likely NO
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
3 articles
Developing
41%
3m Iran proposes new management for Strait of Hormuz amid US blockade
✓ 41h US blockade costs Iran $4.8B in oil revenue, Pentagon reports
4h Iran shuts Strait of Hormuz, stranding 20,000 seafarers amid US tensions
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic
1 article
· 3h ago
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 4% FLAT
3h Powell warns high oil prices may impact US economy amid Hormuz tensions
Likely NO
Fed rate cut timing
1 article
· 3h ago
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 4% FLAT
3h Powell signals cautious Fed stance, lowering rate cut expectations through 2026
Likely NO
Ethereum above on april 30
2 articles
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price on april 30 100% FLAT
✓ 34h Bitmine buys $234M in Ethereum amid US-Iran conflict tensions
4h Bitmine buys $294M Ethereum ahead of Clarity Act debate in May
Likely NO
ECB interest rates april 2026
1 article
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
4h ECB credit standards tighten amid geopolitical tensions, energy volatility
Likely NO
Jimmy kimmel fired/resigns
1 article
· 4h ago
6%
▼0¢
4h Melania Trump urges ABC to fire Kimmel over widow joke amid political tensions
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for april 30
1 article
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price april 27-may 3 0% FLAT
4h Bitcoin drops as leverage liquidations drive structural downside
Likely NO
US declaration of war on Iran
1 article
· 5h ago
8%
▼0¢
5h Trump comments hint at US-Iran tensions amid Strait of Hormuz blockade
Likely NO
Iran diplomatic meetings
1 article
· 5h ago
0%
✓ 45h Trump uncertain about Iran meeting by April 30 amid stalled talks