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8m Trump defies Congress, extends Iran military operations without approval
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
8m Trump defies Congress, extends Iran military operations without approval
▲ US-Iran ceasefire
100% (was 0%, ▲100¢ in 8m)
YES ▲100¢
US-Iran ceasefire
2 articles
Developing
100%
▲100¢
8m 2h Iran blockade costs $5B in oil revenue as US pressure mounts
YES ▲100¢
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
2 articles
Developing
100%
▲100¢
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire 0% FLAT
48m US-Iran tensions rise as Trump rules out deal, ceasefire prospects dim
3h Iran inflicts unprecedented damage on US bases, Gulf states reassess alliances
YES ▲100¢
Bitcoin price predictions for april 30
1 article
Developing
100%
▲100¢
51m Iran conflict raises oil prices, impacts Bitcoin reaching $79K by April 30
YES ▲100¢
Military actions against Iran
2 articles
Developing
100%
▲100¢
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire 0% FLAT
✓ 31h US to withdraw 5,000 troops from Germany amid Iran tensions
✓ 31h Iran conflict spikes fuel prices, halts Strait of Hormuz shipping
NO ▲1¢
Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
Developing
26%
▼1¢
✓ 228m Trump comments dampen US-Iran diplomatic meeting prospects by June 30
NO ▲1¢
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
1 article
Developing
33%
▼1¢
1h Exxon output drops 6% amid US-Iran conflict, Strait of Hormuz disruptions persist
NO ▲1¢
US invasion of Iran
1 article
· 4h ago
10%
▼1¢
✓ 44h Trump asserts Iran operations don’t need congressional approval amid tensions
Likely NO
Iran leadership change
3 articles
Developing
7%
▼0¢
14m Iran leadership vacuum complicates diplomatic efforts amid ongoing conflict
✓ 33h Trump’s dissatisfaction dims Iran leadership change, ceasefire prospects
4h IRGC asserts Supreme Leader to set new Persian Gulf rules amid power shift
Likely NO
Largest company by december 2026
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Largest company by end of april 100% FLAT
17m Alphabet nears $5T market cap, could surpass Nvidia as most valuable company
25m Alphabet’s $36.9B Q1 gain boosts market cap competitiveness against Microsoft
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
34m Middle East tensions drive WTI crude prices toward $150 amid Strait disruptions
4h Powell warns high oil prices may impact US economy amid Hormuz tensions
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions
1 article
Developing
6%
▼0¢
42m Ukraine issues air raid alerts amid escalating Russian drone attacks
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
3 articles
Developing
10%
▼0¢
52m Cuba rejects US sanctions, raising WTI crude oil supply chain concerns
4h US sanctions Iranian exchanges, Chinese terminal amid Hormuz crisis
✓ 24h WTI crude futures drop $3.1 amid easing US-Iran tensions
Likely NO
Crude oil price predictions by june
3 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
55m UAE exits OPEC, raising geopolitical tensions and oil price volatility
4h UAE exits OPEC amid Iran conflict, Strait of Hormuz closure impacts oil prices
4h Venezuela crude exports rise, surpass 1M barrels a day in April
Likely NO
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
3 articles
Developing
41%
▼0¢
58m Iran proposes new management for Strait of Hormuz amid US blockade
✓ 42h US blockade costs Iran $4.8B in oil revenue, Pentagon reports
4h Iran shuts Strait of Hormuz, stranding 20,000 seafarers amid US tensions
Likely NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
1 article
Developing
10%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire 0% FLAT
1h US warns Europe of arms shipment delays amid Iran operations: FT
Likely NO
Israel withdraws from lebanon
2 articles
Developing
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran military action 100% FLAT
1h Hezbollah refuses to disarm, impacting Israeli withdrawal outlook
3h IDF intensifies operations in Lebanon, kills 130 Hezbollah fighters
Likely NO
Bitcoin future price predictions
2 articles
Developing
5%
▼0¢
1h JP Morgan Chase to accept Bitcoin as collateral for institutional loans
3h CFTC to legalize crypto perpetuals in US, boosting regulatory clarity
Likely NO
James comey sentenced to prison in 2026
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ James comey arrest timeline 100% FLAT
1h James Comey indicted for threatening Trump in Instagram post
Likely NO
Next Israeli prime minister
1 article
Developing
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Netanyahu out 6% FLAT
1h Bennett, Lapid form “Together” bloc, challenging Netanyahu ahead of 2026 elections
Likely NO
XRP price on april 30
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 2 100% FLAT
✓ 32h US senators reach stablecoin yield deal ahead of CLARITY Act markup
Likely NO
Iran military action
2 articles
· 2h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Fall of the Iranian regime 0% FLAT
2h Iran executes protest figures amid rising unrest and internet crackdown
4h Ukraine deepens strikes on Russian oil targets, tensions rise
Likely NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium
1 article
· 2h ago
9%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran's enriched uranium surrender 0% FLAT
✓ 22h Trump declares end of Iran conflict, uranium deal remains uncertain
Likely NO
Reza pahlavi entry into Iran
1 article
· 2h ago
26%
▼0¢
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting 26% FLAT
✓ 32h Trump signals prolonged US military presence in Iran amid tensions
Likely NO
Anthropic mythos provision to US government
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
2h US officials may fast-track AI security deadlines amid cyber threat concerns
Likely NO
Bitcoin above on april 30
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 2 100% FLAT
2h Banks reach compromise on crypto market structure bill, boosting Bitcoin outlook
Likely NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal
1 article
· 3h ago
23%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran's enriched uranium 0% FLAT
3h Trump vows to counter nuclear ambitions amid Iran tensions
Likely NO
Starmer out timing
1 article
· 3h ago
42%
▼0¢
3h Wes Streeting prepares to challenge Keir Starmer’s Labour leadership: Telegraph
Likely NO
Dissent at april Fed meeting
1 article
· 4h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline 2% FLAT
4h Bitcoin surges past $78K as Powell chairs final Fed meeting
Likely NO
Trump out as president
2 articles
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
✓ 24h Trump confirms end of Iran military operations with April 7 ceasefire
✓ 74h Trump ends Iran hostilities, hints at possible future military action
Likely NO
Bitcoin price targets
1 article
· 4h ago
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price on april 30 100% FLAT
4h Ethereum Foundation sells $22.9M ETH, market confidence wanes
Likely NO
Fed rate cut timing
1 article
· 4h ago
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 4% FLAT
4h Powell signals cautious Fed stance, lowering rate cut expectations through 2026
Likely NO
Ethereum above on april 30
2 articles
· 5h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price on april 30 100% FLAT
✓ 35h Bitmine buys $234M in Ethereum amid US-Iran conflict tensions
5h Bitmine buys $294M Ethereum ahead of Clarity Act debate in May