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1h Trump declares end to Iran military operations as war powers deadline hits
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
1h Trump declares end to Iran military operations as war powers deadline hits
▲ US-Iran ceasefire
100% (was 0%, ▲100¢ in 1h)
YES ▲100¢
US-Iran ceasefire
5 articles
Developing
100%
▲100¢
1h ✓ 21h Trump dissatisfied with Iran’s peace proposal, ceasefire prospects dim
✓ 52h Trump’s comments fuel US-Iran tension, impact WTI crude oil outlook
YES ▲100¢
Meta platforms stock price predictions
1 article
Developing
100%
▲100¢
1h Meta’s Reality Labs reports $4B Q1 loss amid AI strategy shift
YES ▲100¢
Bitcoin price predictions for april 30
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▲100¢
2h Iran conflict raises oil prices, impacts Bitcoin reaching $79K by April 30
YES ▲1¢
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions
1 article
· 2h ago
7%
▲1¢
2h Ukraine issues air raid alerts amid escalating Russian drone attacks
Likely NO
Iranian regime fall
1 article
· 2h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran leadership change 34% FLAT
⚡ Fall of the Iranian regime 0% FLAT
2h Pro-regime rally in Tehran signals regime stability amid ongoing conflict
Likely NO
Iran leadership change
1 article
· 2h ago
7%
▼0¢
✓ 22h Iran leadership vacuum complicates diplomatic efforts amid ongoing conflict
Likely NO
Largest company by december 2026
2 articles
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Largest company by end of april 100% FLAT
2h Alphabet nears $5T market cap, could surpass Nvidia as most valuable company
2h Alphabet’s $36.9B Q1 gain boosts market cap competitiveness against Microsoft
Likely NO
Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
· 2h ago
27%
▼0¢
✓ 22h Trump comments dampen US-Iran diplomatic meeting prospects by June 30
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
2h Middle East tensions drive WTI crude prices toward $150 amid Strait disruptions
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
10%
▼0¢
2h Cuba rejects US sanctions, raising WTI crude oil supply chain concerns
Likely NO
Crude oil price predictions by june
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
3h UAE exits OPEC, raising geopolitical tensions and oil price volatility
Likely NO
Israel withdraws from lebanon
1 article
· 3h ago
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran military action 100% FLAT
3h Hezbollah refuses to disarm, impacting Israeli withdrawal outlook
Likely NO
Bitcoin future price predictions
1 article
· 3h ago
5%
▼0¢
3h JP Morgan Chase to accept Bitcoin as collateral for institutional loans
Likely NO
James comey sentenced to prison in 2026
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ James comey arrest timeline 100% FLAT
3h James Comey indicted for threatening Trump in Instagram post
Likely NO
Next Israeli prime minister
1 article
· 3h ago
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Netanyahu out 6% FLAT
3h Bennett, Lapid form “Together” bloc, challenging Netanyahu ahead of 2026 elections
Likely NO
XRP price on april 30
1 article
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 2 100% FLAT
✓ 34h US senators reach stablecoin yield deal ahead of CLARITY Act markup
Likely NO
Military actions against Iran
4 articles
Developing
10%
3m Trump advises Netanyahu on surgical strikes amid faltering Lebanon ceasefire
46m US troop withdrawal from Germany signals potential de-escalation with Iran
✓ 43h US to withdraw 5,000 troops from Germany amid Iran tensions
Likely NO
Largest company by market cap predictions
1 article
Developing
74%
▼0¢
17m Apple’s Q1 revenue beat may bolster market cap race against Nvidia
Likely NO
Bank of brazil decision in april 2026
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price targets 0% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 2 100% FLAT
21m Brazil central bank bans crypto in cross-border eFX rails, tightening oversight
1h Banco do Brasil boosts capital limit to $30B amid rising loan defaults
Likely NO
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
2 articles
Developing
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed rate cut timing 4% FLAT
⚡ Fed decision june and july 4% FLAT
24m Fed presidents oppose rate cuts, signaling hawkish stance for 2026
3h Exxon output drops 6% amid US-Iran conflict, Strait of Hormuz disruptions persist
Likely NO
Iran military action
3 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
32m CNN report: Iranian strikes damage US bases, escalating tensions
1h Iran excavates missiles during ceasefire, raising military action concerns
4h Iran executes protest figures amid rising unrest and internet crackdown
Likely NO
Ethereum future price predictions
1 article
Developing
4%
▼0¢
40m OKX agent payments protocol launched with Ethereum, Solana backing
Likely NO
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
3 articles
Developing
41%
▼0¢
✓ 242m Iran seeks response to US naval blockade disrupting oil exports: WSJ
3h Iran proposes new management for Strait of Hormuz amid US blockade
✓ 44h US blockade costs Iran $4.8B in oil revenue, Pentagon reports
Likely NO
US GDP growth Q1 2026
1 article
Developing
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 4% FLAT
48m US stock market gains $6T in April amid easing geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
Bitcoin above on april 30
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Crude oil price predictions by june 100% FLAT
1h Iran war termination announcement stabilizes crude oil prices, market reflects
Likely NO
Ethereum up or down on april 30
1 article
Developing
4%
▼0¢
1h XRP sentiment peaks with Rakuten Wallet integration, price capped at $1.4
Likely NO
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
4 articles
Developing
33%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran's enriched uranium surrender 0% FLAT
✓ 21h Trump comments dampen prospects for US-Iran diplomatic meeting
✓ 21h US expedites arms transfers to Middle East amid Iran tensions
✓ 31h Trump suggests US pivot to Cuba after nearing completion in Iran
Likely NO
Bab el-mandeb strait closure
1 article
Developing
12%
▼0¢
1h Trump announces closure of Strait of Hormuz amid US-Iran tensions
Likely NO
Trump's acquisition of greenland
1 article
Developing
86%
▼0¢
1h EU labels US unreliable amid auto tariffs, impacting Greenland acquisition odds
Likely NO
Bitcoin price april 27-may 3
1 article
Developing
0%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price targets 0% FLAT
1h Morgan Stanley buys $22.4M in Bitcoin amid geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
2 articles
Developing
10%
▼0¢
1h Trump, Putin discuss Ukraine ceasefire, potential easing of Russia sanctions
3h US warns Europe of arms shipment delays amid Iran operations: FT
Likely NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium
1 article
· 4h ago
9%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran's enriched uranium surrender 0% FLAT
✓ 24h Trump declares end of Iran conflict, uranium deal remains uncertain