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1h Bitcoin forecasted to drop to $59,000 amid geopolitical tensions: Kalshi
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
1h Bitcoin forecasted to drop to $59,000 amid geopolitical tensions: Kalshi
▲ Solana price in april
100% (was 0%, ▲100¢ in 1h)
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for april 30: 0% FLAT
YES ▲100¢
Solana price in april
1 article
Developing
100%
▲100¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for april 30 0% FLAT
1h 
YES ▲5¢
Largest company by market cap predictions
1 article
· 6h ago
79%
▲5¢
6h Apple’s Q1 revenue beat may bolster market cap race against Nvidia
NO ▲1¢
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions
2 articles
Developing
6%
▼1¢
1h Russian attack on Kherson bus kills two, complicates ceasefire prospects
✓ 24h Ukraine repels massive drone swarm amid Russian strikes on critical infrastructure
NO ▲1¢
Strait of hormuz traffic
2 articles
Developing
11%
▼1¢
1h Strait of Hormuz closure reroutes shipping, boosts Panama Canal costs
4h Iran economy struggles as Strait of Hormuz traffic decreases amid instability
NO ▲1¢
Jimmy kimmel fired/resigns
1 article
· 4h ago
5%
▼1¢
4h Trump demands Jimmy Kimmel’s firing after controversial joke at White House dinner
YES ▲1¢
Kharg island control changes
1 article
· 4h ago
8%
▲1¢
4h IRGC Navy to enforce Khamenei’s directive amid US naval blockade in Persian Gulf
Likely NO
Iranian regime fall
1 article
Developing
7%
▼0¢
✓ 218m Iran’s internet blackout enters tenth week amid ongoing conflict
Likely NO
US-Iran ceasefire
4 articles
Developing
30%
▼0¢
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting 30% FLAT
23m US approves $8.6B arms package for Israel, Qatar amid rising tensions
1h Trump rejects Iran peace proposal, reinforcing US-Iran diplomatic stalemate
✓ 31h Iran closes Strait of Hormuz amid US tensions, risking global oil supply disruption
Likely NO
Israel withdraws from lebanon
2 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
26m US pushes Aoun-Netanyahu meeting for Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon
✓ 21h China urges UN to reconsider UNIFIL withdrawal amid Lebanon conflict
Likely NO
Iran military action
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
30m Iran-backed militias attack US-UK base in Iraq 28 times before ceasefire
2h Israeli forces conduct 41 attacks in Lebanon, killing 23 amid ongoing conflict
Likely NO
Anthropic mythos provision to US government
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
53m Pentagon pushes AI-first strategy, boosting Anthropic Mythos prospects
Likely NO
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
2 articles
Developing
41%
▼0¢
1h Iran declares Hormuz non-negotiable amid US tensions
✓ 31h Trump criticizes US Navy’s Iranian port blockade as ‘piracy’ amid tensions
Likely NO
US invasion of Iran
2 articles
Developing
7%
▼0¢
⚡ US declaration of war on Iran 6% FLAT
✓ 31h Trump announces US troop withdrawal from Germany amid Iran tensions
1h Iranian attacks on US bases in Kuwait escalate military tensions
Likely NO
Reza pahlavi entry into Iran
1 article
Developing
7%
▼0¢
⚡ Iranian regime fall 0% FLAT
⚡ Iran leadership change 34% FLAT
1h Iranian hardliners tighten grip, reducing odds of regime change
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for april 30
1 article
Developing
5%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin future price predictions 5% FLAT
1h Bitcoin surpasses $78,000 as Senate clears Clarity Act, boosting regulatory clarity
Likely NO
Fall of the Iranian regime
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
1h US-Israel airstrikes on Iran escalate tensions amid regime instability
Likely NO
Largest company by end of april
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
1h Huawei AI chip sales surge as Nvidia faces China market challenges
5h Samsung chip profit surges 48-fold amid AI demand, competition with Nvidia
Likely NO
Crude oil price predictions by june
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
1h Venezuela signs $2B oil MoUs with US firms amid supply shift
4h UAE exits OPEC amid Middle East tensions, oil prices expected to rise
Likely NO
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
· 2h ago
10%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire 0% FLAT
2h Trump favors no Iran deal as US military presence increases
Likely NO
Fed rate decisions
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ ECB interest rates april 2026 100% FLAT
2h Bank of England signals potential rate hikes amid Iran conflict inflation risks
Likely NO
Military actions against Iran
3 articles
· 4h ago
0%
✓ 24h USS Gerald R. Ford departs Middle East, signals partial US military de-escalation
✓ 24h Iran open to talks, Trump praises US laser defense amid Hormuz tensions
✓ 25h Trump advises Netanyahu on surgical strikes amid faltering Lebanon ceasefire
Likely NO
Bitcoin above on april 30
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
2h Libya boosts oil output amid Iran conflict, Strait of Hormuz disruptions persist
Likely NO
US forces enter Iran
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
2h USS Gerald R. Ford leaves Middle East, signaling reduced US military presence
Likely NO
US declaration of war on Iran
1 article
· 3h ago
7%
▼0¢
3h Trump signs order to expedite psychedelic treatments for veterans
Likely NO
Trump's Iranian demands in april
1 article
· 3h ago
9%
▼0¢
⚡ US declaration of war on Iran 6% FLAT
3h Trump rejects Iranian demands, lowers US war declaration likelihood
Likely NO
MegaETH FDV one day after launch
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ MegaETH market cap predictions 100% FLAT
✓ 23h Upbit lists MEGA token, boosting MegaETH FDV prospects over $500M
Likely NO
Iran diplomatic meetings
1 article
· 4h ago
9%
▼0¢
⚡ Military actions against Iran 0% FLAT
✓ 24h US bypasses Congress for $8.6B arms sales amid Iran tensions
Likely NO
Best AI model by may
1 article
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Anthropic mythos provision to US government 100% FLAT
4h Anthropic’s AI actions may impact Google’s top model odds by May
Likely NO
China-taiwan invasion predictions
1 article
· 4h ago
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin above on april 30 100% FLAT
4h Taiwan lawmaker proposes Bitcoin reserve amid China tensions
Likely NO
Meta platforms stock price predictions
1 article
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
4h Google, Meta, Microsoft boost AI spending amid US-China competition
Likely NO
Iran's enriched uranium surrender
1 article
· 4h ago
9%
▼0¢
⚡ US obtains Iranian enriched uranium 8% FLAT
4h IAEA, Russia, US in talks to extract Iran’s enriched uranium from Isfahan
Likely NO
Fed rate cut timing
1 article
· 5h ago
5%
▼0¢
5h Jim Cramer warns of economic decline amid rising US inflation
Likely NO
MegaETH market cap predictions
1 article
· 5h ago
5%
▼0¢
5h Coinbase deal on CLARITY Act provision may boost Bitcoin regulatory clarity
Likely NO
Bitcoin price april 27-may 3
1 article
· 5h ago
0%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for april 30 0% FLAT
5h BlackRock clients invest $284M in Bitcoin amid geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
Bitcoin price targets
1 article
· 5h ago
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for april 30 0% FLAT
5h Bitcoin posts best monthly gain in a year, retail interest wanes
Likely NO
Trump out as president
1 article
· 2h ago
0%
2h Trump ends Iran operations, reducing US invasion likelihood
Likely NO
Bank of brazil decision in april 2026
1 article
· 6h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price targets 0% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 2 100% FLAT
6h Brazil central bank bans crypto in cross-border eFX rails, tightening oversight