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2h Bitcoin forecasted to drop to $59,000 amid geopolitical tensions: Kalshi
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
2h Bitcoin forecasted to drop to $59,000 amid geopolitical tensions: Kalshi
▲ Solana price in april
100% (was 0%, ▲100¢ in 2h)
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for april 30: 0% FLAT
YES ▲100¢
Solana price in april
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▲100¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for april 30 0% FLAT
2h 
NO ▲1¢
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions
2 articles
· 2h ago
6%
▼1¢
2h Russian attack on Kherson bus kills two, complicates ceasefire prospects
✓ 25h Ukraine repels massive drone swarm amid Russian strikes on critical infrastructure
NO ▲1¢
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
2 articles
· 2h ago
40%
▼1¢
2h Iran declares Hormuz non-negotiable amid US tensions
✓ 33h Trump criticizes US Navy’s Iranian port blockade as ‘piracy’ amid tensions
NO ▲1¢
Fall of the Iranian regime
1 article
· 2h ago
2%
▼1¢
2h US-Israel airstrikes on Iran escalate tensions amid regime instability
NO ▲1¢
Strait of hormuz traffic
1 article
· 2h ago
11%
▼1¢
2h Strait of Hormuz closure reroutes shipping, boosts Panama Canal costs
NO ▲1¢
Jimmy kimmel fired/resigns
1 article
· 5h ago
5%
▼1¢
5h Trump demands Jimmy Kimmel’s firing after controversial joke at White House dinner
Likely NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
2 articles
Developing
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions 0% FLAT
4m Ukraine shifts defense strategy, reduces reliance on US aid amid EU, Turkey ties
11m Russian forces capture Myropillia in eastern Ukraine amid ongoing conflict
Likely NO
ECB interest rates april 2026
1 article
Developing
5%
▼0¢
31m ECB’s Rehn signals hawkish stance, reducing likelihood of April 2026 rate cut
Likely NO
Trump out as president
1 article
· 3h ago
0%
3h Trump ends Iran operations, reducing US invasion likelihood
Likely NO
Bitcoin above on april 30
2 articles
Developing
7%
▼0¢
⚡ Iranian regime fall 0% FLAT
12m Iran’s rial plummets amid US-Iran conflict, impacting global markets
4h Libya boosts oil output amid Iran conflict, Strait of Hormuz disruptions persist
Likely NO
Bab el-mandeb strait closure
2 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel withdraws from lebanon 0% FLAT
14m Israeli army issues new evacuation warnings in southern Lebanon amid tensions
✓ 229m Iran proposes reopening Strait of Hormuz amid US conflict tensions
Likely NO
Iran's enriched uranium surrender
1 article
Developing
9%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin above on april 30 100% FLAT
⚡ US obtains Iranian enriched uranium 8% FLAT
22m US Treasury seizes $500M in Iranian crypto amid rising tensions
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 2
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
28m Middle East conflict impacts global economy, Bitcoin holds above $68K
Likely NO
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
2 articles
Developing
30%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire 0% FLAT
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting 30% FLAT
36m Iran and France discuss diplomatic solutions to US-Israeli conflict with Iran
3h Trump favors no Iran deal as US military presence increases
Likely NO
Military actions against Iran
1 article
Developing
10%
▼0¢
✓ 238m Trump threatens US troop reduction in Italy, Spain over Iran disagreements
Likely NO
Ethereum future price predictions
1 article
Developing
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price targets 0% FLAT
⚡ Ethereum price in april 0% FLAT
49m Crypto market hit by $560M in liquidations amid US-Iran tensions
Likely NO
Crude oil price predictions by june
3 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
51m UAE to exit OPEC, increase oil production amid geopolitical tensions
3h Venezuela signs $2B oil MoUs with US firms amid supply shift
5h UAE exits OPEC amid Middle East tensions, oil prices expected to rise
Likely NO
Bitcoin price april 27-may 3
1 article
Developing
4%
▼0¢
1h BlackRock clients sell $54.7M Bitcoin amid Middle East ceasefire
Likely NO
Iranian regime fall
1 article
Developing
7%
▼0¢
✓ 31h Iran’s internet blackout enters tenth week amid ongoing conflict
Likely NO
US-Iran ceasefire
4 articles
Developing
30%
▼0¢
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting 30% FLAT
1h US approves $8.6B arms package for Israel, Qatar amid rising tensions
✓ 22h Trump rejects Iran peace proposal, reinforcing US-Iran diplomatic stalemate
✓ 32h Iran closes Strait of Hormuz amid US tensions, risking global oil supply disruption
Likely NO
Israel withdraws from lebanon
2 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
1h US pushes Aoun-Netanyahu meeting for Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon
✓ 22h China urges UN to reconsider UNIFIL withdrawal amid Lebanon conflict
Likely NO
Iran military action
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
1h Iran-backed militias attack US-UK base in Iraq 28 times before ceasefire
3h Israeli forces conduct 41 attacks in Lebanon, killing 23 amid ongoing conflict
Likely NO
Anthropic mythos provision to US government
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
2h Pentagon pushes AI-first strategy, boosting Anthropic Mythos prospects
Likely NO
US invasion of Iran
2 articles
· 2h ago
7%
▼0¢
⚡ US declaration of war on Iran 6% FLAT
✓ 42h Trump announces US troop withdrawal from Germany amid Iran tensions
3h Iranian attacks on US bases in Kuwait escalate military tensions
Likely NO
Reza pahlavi entry into Iran
1 article
· 2h ago
7%
▼0¢
⚡ Iranian regime fall 0% FLAT
⚡ Iran leadership change 34% FLAT
2h Iranian hardliners tighten grip, reducing odds of regime change
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for april 30
1 article
· 2h ago
5%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin future price predictions 5% FLAT
2h Bitcoin surpasses $78,000 as Senate clears Clarity Act, boosting regulatory clarity
Likely NO
Largest company by end of april
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
2h Huawei AI chip sales surge as Nvidia faces China market challenges
Likely NO
Fed rate decisions
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ ECB interest rates april 2026 100% FLAT
3h Bank of England signals potential rate hikes amid Iran conflict inflation risks
Likely NO
US forces enter Iran
1 article
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
4h USS Gerald R. Ford leaves Middle East, signaling reduced US military presence
Likely NO
US declaration of war on Iran
1 article
· 4h ago
7%
▼0¢
4h Trump signs order to expedite psychedelic treatments for veterans
Likely NO
Trump's Iranian demands in april
1 article
· 4h ago
9%
▼0¢
⚡ US declaration of war on Iran 6% FLAT
4h Trump rejects Iranian demands, lowers US war declaration likelihood
Likely NO
MegaETH FDV one day after launch
1 article
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ MegaETH market cap predictions 100% FLAT
✓ 24h Upbit lists MEGA token, boosting MegaETH FDV prospects over $500M
Likely NO
Iran diplomatic meetings
1 article
· 5h ago
9%
▼0¢
⚡ Military actions against Iran 0% FLAT
✓ 25h US bypasses Congress for $8.6B arms sales amid Iran tensions
Likely NO
Best AI model by may
1 article
· 5h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Anthropic mythos provision to US government 100% FLAT
5h Anthropic’s AI actions may impact Google’s top model odds by May
Likely NO
China-taiwan invasion predictions
1 article
· 5h ago
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin above on april 30 100% FLAT
5h Taiwan lawmaker proposes Bitcoin reserve amid China tensions
Likely NO
Meta platforms stock price predictions
1 article
· 5h ago
100%
▼0¢
5h Google, Meta, Microsoft boost AI spending amid US-China competition