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3h Bitcoin forecasted to drop to $59,000 amid geopolitical tensions: Kalshi
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
3h Bitcoin forecasted to drop to $59,000 amid geopolitical tensions: Kalshi
▲ Solana price in april
100% (was 0%, ▲100¢ in 3h)
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for april 30: 0% FLAT
YES ▲100¢
Solana price in april
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▲100¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for april 30 0% FLAT
3h 
NO ▲1¢
Israel withdraws from lebanon
3 articles
Developing
2%
▼1¢
✓ 254m Thirteen killed in Israeli airstrikes on southern Lebanon amid ongoing conflict
2h US pushes Aoun-Netanyahu meeting for Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon
✓ 23h China urges UN to reconsider UNIFIL withdrawal amid Lebanon conflict
YES ▲1¢
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
2 articles
Developing
31%
▲1¢
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire 0% FLAT
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting 30% FLAT
1h Iran and France discuss diplomatic solutions to US-Israeli conflict with Iran
4h Trump favors no Iran deal as US military presence increases
NO ▲1¢
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions
1 article
· 3h ago
6%
▼1¢
3h Russian attack on Kherson bus kills two, complicates ceasefire prospects
NO ▲1¢
Fall of the Iranian regime
1 article
· 3h ago
2%
▼1¢
3h US-Israel airstrikes on Iran escalate tensions amid regime instability
Likely NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
2 articles
Developing
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions 0% FLAT
1h Ukraine shifts defense strategy, reduces reliance on US aid amid EU, Turkey ties
1h Russian forces capture Myropillia in eastern Ukraine amid ongoing conflict
Likely NO
Bitcoin above on april 30
1 article
Developing
7%
▼0¢
⚡ Iranian regime fall 0% FLAT
1h Iran’s rial plummets amid US-Iran conflict, impacting global markets
Likely NO
Bab el-mandeb strait closure
2 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel withdraws from lebanon 0% FLAT
✓ 31h Israeli army issues new evacuation warnings in southern Lebanon amid tensions
✓ 51h Iran proposes reopening Strait of Hormuz amid US conflict tensions
Likely NO
Iran's enriched uranium surrender
1 article
Developing
9%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin above on april 30 100% FLAT
⚡ US obtains Iranian enriched uranium 8% FLAT
1h US Treasury seizes $500M in Iranian crypto amid rising tensions
Likely YES
Military actions against Iran
2 articles
Developing
7%
⚡ US declaration of war on Iran 6% FLAT
2m Trump calls for war with Iran to stop nuclear threat
✓ 41h Trump threatens US troop reduction in Italy, Spain over Iran disagreements
Likely NO
US declaration of war on Iran
1 article
Developing
6%
▼0¢
8m GOP blocks war powers resolution, reducing odds of US-Iran war declaration
Likely NO
Iran military action
5 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
17m Iran warns of likely war resumption amid US tensions
41m Iranian strikes hit 16 US military sites, causing billions in damage
50m US troop withdrawal from Germany signals de-escalation in Iran strategy
Likely NO
US-Iran ceasefire
4 articles
Developing
10%
▼0¢
24m Lebanon’s Aoun open to Israel talks, aims for ceasefire amid Hezbollah opposition
2h US approves $8.6B arms package for Israel, Qatar amid rising tensions
✓ 23h Trump rejects Iran peace proposal, reinforcing US-Iran diplomatic stalemate
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic
2 articles
Developing
5%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire 0% FLAT
27m Iran demands US withdrawal from Gulf amid Strait of Hormuz tensions
4h Strait of Hormuz closure reroutes shipping, boosts Panama Canal costs
Likely NO
Iran diplomatic meetings
1 article
Developing
31%
▼0¢
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting 30% FLAT
31m Stewart joins US envoy team, dims prospects for Iran talks
Likely NO
Best AI model by may
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
✓ 233m Pentagon excludes Anthropic from AI deals over safety disputes
Likely NO
Netanyahu out
1 article
Developing
6%
▼0¢
35m Israel’s economy projected to grow 3.8% in 2026 amid regional conflict
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 2
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
1h Middle East conflict impacts global economy, Bitcoin holds above $68K
Likely NO
ECB interest rates april 2026
1 article
Developing
5%
▼0¢
1h ECB’s Rehn signals hawkish stance, reducing likelihood of April 2026 rate cut
Likely NO
Ethereum future price predictions
1 article
Developing
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price targets 0% FLAT
⚡ Ethereum price in april 0% FLAT
1h Crypto market hit by $560M in liquidations amid US-Iran tensions
Likely NO
Crude oil price predictions by june
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
1h UAE to exit OPEC, increase oil production amid geopolitical tensions
4h Venezuela signs $2B oil MoUs with US firms amid supply shift
Likely NO
Bitcoin price april 27-may 3
1 article
· 2h ago
4%
▼0¢
2h BlackRock clients sell $54.7M Bitcoin amid Middle East ceasefire
Likely NO
Iranian regime fall
1 article
· 2h ago
7%
▼0¢
✓ 32h Iran’s internet blackout enters tenth week amid ongoing conflict
Likely NO
Anthropic mythos provision to US government
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
3h Pentagon pushes AI-first strategy, boosting Anthropic Mythos prospects
Likely NO
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
4 articles
Developing
40%
4m Trump calls US Navy actions “piracy” amid Hormuz blockade tensions
9m US seeks coalition to restore Hormuz navigation by May 1 amid tensions
3h Iran declares Hormuz non-negotiable amid US tensions
Likely NO
US invasion of Iran
2 articles
· 3h ago
7%
▼0¢
⚡ US declaration of war on Iran 6% FLAT
✓ 43h Trump announces US troop withdrawal from Germany amid Iran tensions
4h Iranian attacks on US bases in Kuwait escalate military tensions
Likely NO
Reza pahlavi entry into Iran
1 article
· 3h ago
7%
▼0¢
⚡ Iranian regime fall 0% FLAT
⚡ Iran leadership change 34% FLAT
3h Iranian hardliners tighten grip, reducing odds of regime change
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for april 30
1 article
· 3h ago
5%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin future price predictions 5% FLAT
3h Bitcoin surpasses $78,000 as Senate clears Clarity Act, boosting regulatory clarity
Likely NO
US x Iran ceasefire extensions
1 article
Developing
0%
15m Iran conflict escalates as US and allies strike, ceasefire extension unlikely
Likely NO
Largest company by end of april
1 article
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
4h Huawei AI chip sales surge as Nvidia faces China market challenges
Likely NO
Fed rate decisions
1 article
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ ECB interest rates april 2026 100% FLAT
4h Bank of England signals potential rate hikes amid Iran conflict inflation risks