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31m XRP spot ETFs attract $2.2M inflows as BTC, ETH see outflows amid tensions
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
31m XRP spot ETFs attract $2.2M inflows as BTC, ETH see outflows amid tensions
▲ Bitcoin price targets
100% (was 0%, ▲100¢ in 31m)
YES ▲100¢
Solana price in april
1 article
· 4h ago
100%
▲100¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for april 30 0% FLAT
4h Bitcoin forecasted to drop to $59,000 amid geopolitical tensions: Kalshi
YES ▲2¢
Trump's visit to China
1 article
Developing
93%
▲2¢
57m US C-17 lands in Beijing, signaling preparations for Trump’s China visit in May
YES ▲1¢
Fall of the Iranian regime
1 article
Developing
3%
▲1¢
55m Spirit Airlines shuts down amid US-Iran-Israel conflict and rising fuel costs
NO ▲1¢
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
3 articles
Developing
39%
▼1¢
1h Trump calls US Navy actions “piracy” amid Hormuz blockade tensions
1h US seeks coalition to restore Hormuz navigation by May 1 amid tensions
4h Iran declares Hormuz non-negotiable amid US tensions
NO ▲1¢
Iran diplomatic meetings
1 article
Developing
30%
▼1¢
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting 30% FLAT
1h Stewart joins US envoy team, dims prospects for Iran talks
YES ▲1¢
US invasion of Iran
1 article
· 4h ago
8%
▲1¢
⚡ US declaration of war on Iran 6% FLAT
✓ 44h Trump announces US troop withdrawal from Germany amid Iran tensions
Likely NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
2 articles
· 2h ago
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions 0% FLAT
2h Ukraine shifts defense strategy, reduces reliance on US aid amid EU, Turkey ties
2h Russian forces capture Myropillia in eastern Ukraine amid ongoing conflict
Likely NO
Bitcoin above on april 30
1 article
· 2h ago
7%
▼0¢
⚡ Iranian regime fall 0% FLAT
2h Iran’s rial plummets amid US-Iran conflict, impacting global markets
Likely NO
Bab el-mandeb strait closure
2 articles
· 2h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel withdraws from lebanon 0% FLAT
✓ 32h Israeli army issues new evacuation warnings in southern Lebanon amid tensions
✓ 52h Iran proposes reopening Strait of Hormuz amid US conflict tensions
Likely NO
Iran's enriched uranium surrender
1 article
· 2h ago
9%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin above on april 30 100% FLAT
⚡ US obtains Iranian enriched uranium 8% FLAT
2h US Treasury seizes $500M in Iranian crypto amid rising tensions
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 2
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
2h Middle East conflict impacts global economy, Bitcoin holds above $68K
Likely NO
ECB interest rates april 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
5%
▼0¢
2h ECB’s Rehn signals hawkish stance, reducing likelihood of April 2026 rate cut
Likely NO
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
· 2h ago
30%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire 0% FLAT
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting 30% FLAT
2h Iran and France discuss diplomatic solutions to US-Israeli conflict with Iran
Likely NO
Ethereum future price predictions
1 article
· 2h ago
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price targets 0% FLAT
⚡ Ethereum price in april 0% FLAT
2h Crypto market hit by $560M in liquidations amid US-Iran tensions
Likely NO
Bitcoin price april 27-may 3
1 article
· 3h ago
4%
▼0¢
3h BlackRock clients sell $54.7M Bitcoin amid Middle East ceasefire
Likely NO
Iranian regime fall
1 article
· 3h ago
7%
▼0¢
✓ 33h Iran’s internet blackout enters tenth week amid ongoing conflict
Likely NO
Anthropic mythos provision to US government
1 article
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
4h Pentagon pushes AI-first strategy, boosting Anthropic Mythos prospects
Likely NO
Iran military action
5 articles
Developing
100%
3m IAEA investigates drone strike near Zaporizhzhia NPP, heightening regional tensions
✓ 21h Iran warns of likely war resumption amid US tensions
1h Iranian strikes hit 16 US military sites, causing billions in damage
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 1
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 2 100% FLAT
8m US debt hits $39T, Bitcoin seen as hedge amid geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
Military actions against Iran
3 articles
Developing
8%
▼0¢
⚡ US declaration of war on Iran 8% FLAT
10m Pentagon considers deploying “Dark Eagle” hypersonic missile against Iran
1h Trump calls for war with Iran to stop nuclear threat
✓ 42h Trump threatens US troop reduction in Italy, Spain over Iran disagreements
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions
3 articles
Developing
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Russia x Ukraine ceasefire 10% FLAT
14m Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil sites dim ceasefire prospects
58m Fighting escalates in Ukraine’s Kostiantynivka, challenging ceasefire hopes
4h Russian attack on Kherson bus kills two, complicates ceasefire prospects
Likely NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium
1 article
Developing
9%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran's enriched uranium surrender 0% FLAT
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting 31% FLAT
21m Graham calls for US action if Iran resists in nuclear talks, impacting markets
Likely NO
Bitcoin future price predictions
1 article
Developing
4%
▼0¢
33m Senator Tillis stalls CLARITY Act, impacting Bitcoin’s long-term outlook
Likely NO
Crude oil price predictions by june
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
✓ 336m OPEC+ nations agree to raise oil output quotas by 188,000 BPD for June
2h UAE to exit OPEC, increase oil production amid geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
US withdrawal from NATO timeline
1 article
Developing
1%
▼0¢
37m US-Iran diplomatic meeting odds drop after $9B arms deal
Likely NO
Israel withdraws from lebanon
3 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire 0% FLAT
49m Hezbollah resurgence complicates Israeli withdrawal, US-Iran ceasefire talks
✓ 31h Thirteen killed in Israeli airstrikes on southern Lebanon amid ongoing conflict
3h US pushes Aoun-Netanyahu meeting for Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon
Likely NO
US-Iran ceasefire
3 articles
Developing
10%
▼0¢
1h Lebanon’s Aoun open to Israel talks, aims for ceasefire amid Hezbollah opposition
3h US approves $8.6B arms package for Israel, Qatar amid rising tensions
✓ 24h Trump rejects Iran peace proposal, reinforcing US-Iran diplomatic stalemate
Likely NO
Best AI model by may
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
✓ 21h Pentagon excludes Anthropic from AI deals over safety disputes
Likely NO
Netanyahu out
1 article
Developing
6%
▼0¢
1h Israel’s economy projected to grow 3.8% in 2026 amid regional conflict
Likely NO
US x Iran ceasefire extensions
1 article
Developing
0%
1h Iran conflict escalates as US and allies strike, ceasefire extension unlikely
Likely NO
US declaration of war on Iran
1 article
Developing
6%
▼0¢
1h GOP blocks war powers resolution, reducing odds of US-Iran war declaration
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic
1 article
Developing
5%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire 0% FLAT
1h Iran demands US withdrawal from Gulf amid Strait of Hormuz tensions