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1h XRP spot ETFs attract $2.2M inflows as BTC, ETH see outflows amid tensions
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
1h XRP spot ETFs attract $2.2M inflows as BTC, ETH see outflows amid tensions
▲ Bitcoin price targets
100% (was 0%, ▲100¢ in 1h)
NO ▲2¢
Iran diplomatic meetings
1 article
· 2h ago
29%
▼2¢
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting 30% FLAT
2h Stewart joins US envoy team, dims prospects for Iran talks
NO ▲1¢
Fall of the Iranian regime
2 articles
Developing
2%
▼1¢
25m UAE resumes normal air traffic, easing regional tensions
1h Spirit Airlines shuts down amid US-Iran-Israel conflict and rising fuel costs
YES ▲1¢
Trump's visit to China
1 article
Developing
92%
▲1¢
1h US C-17 lands in Beijing, signaling preparations for Trump’s China visit in May
NO ▲1¢
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
· 3h ago
29%
▼1¢
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire 0% FLAT
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting 30% FLAT
3h Iran and France discuss diplomatic solutions to US-Israeli conflict with Iran
Likely NO
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
4 articles
Developing
36%
▼0¢
5m Trump calls US Navy actions “pirate-like” amid Iranian port blockade
53m Trump rejects Iran proposal, Strait of Hormuz blockade remains
2h Trump calls US Navy actions “piracy” amid Hormuz blockade tensions
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 1
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 2 100% FLAT
1h US debt hits $39T, Bitcoin seen as hedge amid geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions
2 articles
Developing
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Russia x Ukraine ceasefire 10% FLAT
1h Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil sites dim ceasefire prospects
1h Fighting escalates in Ukraine’s Kostiantynivka, challenging ceasefire hopes
Likely NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium
1 article
Developing
9%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran's enriched uranium surrender 0% FLAT
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting 31% FLAT
✓ 31h Graham calls for US action if Iran resists in nuclear talks, impacting markets
Likely NO
Bitcoin future price predictions
1 article
Developing
4%
▼0¢
1h Senator Tillis stalls CLARITY Act, impacting Bitcoin’s long-term outlook
Likely YES
US withdrawal from NATO timeline
2 articles
Developing
1%
⚡ Military actions against Iran 0% FLAT
2m US to withdraw 5,000 troops from Germany amid NATO tensions over Iran
1h US-Iran diplomatic meeting odds drop after $9B arms deal
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for april 30
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 2 100% FLAT
15m Bitcoin faces pressure as US 30-year Treasury yield
Likely NO
Bitcoin price april 27-may 3
1 article
Developing
99.9%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 3 100% FLAT
23m Bitcoin and Ethereum see $90.5M leveraged long amid US-Iran tensions
Likely NO
Israel withdraws from lebanon
3 articles
Developing
6%
▼0¢
34m Israel intercepts shell amid ongoing Lebanon conflict with Hezbollah
1h Hezbollah resurgence complicates Israeli withdrawal, US-Iran ceasefire talks
✓ 32h Thirteen killed in Israeli airstrikes on southern Lebanon amid ongoing conflict
Likely NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
3 articles
Developing
10%
▼0¢
38m Russia warns US against Iran ground operation amid tensions
3h Ukraine shifts defense strategy, reduces reliance on US aid amid EU, Turkey ties
3h Russian forces capture Myropillia in eastern Ukraine amid ongoing conflict
Likely NO
Military actions against Iran
4 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
41m Centcom to brief Trump on new Iran military strategy amid tensions
1h Pentagon considers deploying “Dark Eagle” hypersonic missile against Iran
1h Trump calls for war with Iran to stop nuclear threat
Likely NO
Reza pahlavi entry into Iran
1 article
Developing
7%
▼0¢
⚡ Iranian regime fall 0% FLAT
⚡ Iran leadership change 34% FLAT
45m Iran’s leadership vacuum stabilizes regime under IRGC control
Likely NO
Iran leadership change
1 article
Developing
7%
▼0¢
⚡ Iranian regime fall 0% FLAT
55m Iran executes dozens, arrests 4,000+ amid crackdown after US-Israel strikes
Likely NO
Iran military action
4 articles
Developing
6%
▼0¢
59m IAEA investigates drone strike near Zaporizhzhia NPP, heightening regional tensions
✓ 22h Iran warns of likely war resumption amid US tensions
2h Iranian strikes hit 16 US military sites, causing billions in damage
Likely NO
Crude oil price predictions by june
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
✓ 51h OPEC+ nations agree to raise oil output quotas by 188,000 BPD for June
3h UAE to exit OPEC, increase oil production amid geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
US declaration of war on Iran
1 article
· 2h ago
6%
▼0¢
2h GOP blocks war powers resolution, reducing odds of US-Iran war declaration
Likely NO
US-Iran ceasefire
1 article
· 2h ago
10%
▼0¢
2h Lebanon’s Aoun open to Israel talks, aims for ceasefire amid Hezbollah opposition
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic
1 article
· 2h ago
5%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire 0% FLAT
2h Iran demands US withdrawal from Gulf amid Strait of Hormuz tensions
Likely NO
US x Iran ceasefire extensions
1 article
· 2h ago
0%
2h Iran conflict escalates as US and allies strike, ceasefire extension unlikely
Likely NO
Best AI model by may
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
✓ 22h Pentagon excludes Anthropic from AI deals over safety disputes
Likely NO
Netanyahu out
1 article
· 2h ago
6%
▼0¢
2h Israel’s economy projected to grow 3.8% in 2026 amid regional conflict
Likely NO
Bitcoin above on april 30
1 article
· 3h ago
7%
▼0¢
⚡ Iranian regime fall 0% FLAT
3h Iran’s rial plummets amid US-Iran conflict, impacting global markets
Likely NO
Bab el-mandeb strait closure
2 articles
· 3h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel withdraws from lebanon 0% FLAT
✓ 33h Israeli army issues new evacuation warnings in southern Lebanon amid tensions
✓ 63h Iran proposes reopening Strait of Hormuz amid US conflict tensions
Likely NO
Iran's enriched uranium surrender
1 article
· 3h ago
9%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin above on april 30 100% FLAT
⚡ US obtains Iranian enriched uranium 8% FLAT
3h US Treasury seizes $500M in Iranian crypto amid rising tensions
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 2
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
3h Middle East conflict impacts global economy, Bitcoin holds above $68K
Likely NO
ECB interest rates april 2026
1 article
· 3h ago
5%
▼0¢
3h ECB’s Rehn signals hawkish stance, reducing likelihood of April 2026 rate cut
Likely NO
Ethereum future price predictions
1 article
· 3h ago
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price targets 0% FLAT
⚡ Ethereum price in april 0% FLAT
3h Crypto market hit by $560M in liquidations amid US-Iran tensions