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1h Trump calls US Navy actions “pirate-like” amid Iranian port blockade
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
1h Trump calls US Navy actions “pirate-like” amid Iranian port blockade
▼ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
33% (was 36%, ▼3¢ in 1h)
NO ▲3¢
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
4 articles
Developing
33%
▼3¢
1h 
✓ 22h Trump rejects Iran proposal, Strait of Hormuz blockade remains
3h Trump calls US Navy actions “piracy” amid Hormuz blockade tensions
NO ▲1¢
Bab el-mandeb strait closure
1 article
Developing
33%
▼1¢
50m US tightens Strait of Hormuz blockade, impacting Iran oil exports
NO ▲1¢
Fall of the Iranian regime
2 articles
Developing
2%
▼1¢
✓ 21h UAE resumes normal air traffic, easing regional tensions
3h Spirit Airlines shuts down amid US-Iran-Israel conflict and rising fuel costs
NO ▲1¢
Iran diplomatic meetings
1 article
· 3h ago
30%
▼1¢
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting 30% FLAT
3h Stewart joins US envoy team, dims prospects for Iran talks
Likely NO
Bitcoin price targets
2 articles
Developing
4%
▼0¢
12m Bitcoin ETFs see 5-week inflow streak amid easing US-Iran tensions
2h XRP spot ETFs attract $2.2M inflows as BTC, ETH see outflows amid tensions
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for april 30
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 2 100% FLAT
1h Bitcoin faces pressure as US 30-year Treasury yield
Likely NO
Bitcoin price april 27-may 3
1 article
Developing
99.9%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 3 100% FLAT
1h Bitcoin and Ethereum see $90.5M leveraged long amid US-Iran tensions
Likely NO
Israel withdraws from lebanon
3 articles
Developing
6%
▼0¢
1h Israel intercepts shell amid ongoing Lebanon conflict with Hezbollah
3h Hezbollah resurgence complicates Israeli withdrawal, US-Iran ceasefire talks
✓ 34h Thirteen killed in Israeli airstrikes on southern Lebanon amid ongoing conflict
Likely NO
US-Iran ceasefire
2 articles
Developing
10%
2m Iran expects further US attacks, dismisses ceasefire sincerity
3h Lebanon’s Aoun open to Israel talks, aims for ceasefire amid Hezbollah opposition
Likely NO
US withdrawal from NATO timeline
2 articles
Developing
10%
▼0¢
⚡ Military actions against Iran 0% FLAT
✓ 31h US to withdraw 5,000 troops from Germany amid NATO tensions over Iran
2h US-Iran diplomatic meeting odds drop after $9B arms deal
Likely NO
US x Iran ceasefire extensions
1 article
· 3h ago
0%
3h Iran conflict escalates as US and allies strike, ceasefire extension unlikely
Likely NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
4 articles
Developing
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions 0% FLAT
21m Zelensky warns of military activity on Belarus border amid ceasefire doubts
1h Russia warns US against Iran ground operation amid tensions
4h Ukraine shifts defense strategy, reduces reliance on US aid amid EU, Turkey ties
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions
3 articles
Developing
23%
▼0¢
24m Drone strike on Chornobyl escalates Russo-Ukrainian conflict tensions
2h Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil sites dim ceasefire prospects
3h Fighting escalates in Ukraine’s Kostiantynivka, challenging ceasefire hopes
Likely NO
MegaETH FDV one day after launch
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ MegaETH market cap predictions 100% FLAT
44m MegaETH TVL nears $600M after MEGA token launch despite price drop
Likely NO
Trump's visit to China
2 articles
Developing
0%
▼0¢
55m China blocks US sanctions on refineries, impacting oil market dynamics
3h US C-17 lands in Beijing, signaling preparations for Trump’s China visit in May
Likely NO
Jimmy kimmel fired/resigns
1 article
Developing
4%
▼0¢
1h Melania Trump calls for Jimmy Kimmel’s firing amid media controversy
Likely NO
Kharg island control changes
1 article
Developing
8%
▼0¢
✓ 61h Pirates hijack oil tanker off Yemen, raising Bab el-Mandeb Strait concerns
Likely NO
Military actions against Iran
3 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
1h Centcom to brief Trump on new Iran military strategy amid tensions
2h Pentagon considers deploying “Dark Eagle” hypersonic missile against Iran
3h Trump calls for war with Iran to stop nuclear threat
Likely NO
Reza pahlavi entry into Iran
1 article
· 2h ago
7%
▼0¢
⚡ Iranian regime fall 0% FLAT
⚡ Iran leadership change 34% FLAT
2h Iran’s leadership vacuum stabilizes regime under IRGC control
Likely NO
Iran leadership change
1 article
· 2h ago
7%
▼0¢
⚡ Iranian regime fall 0% FLAT
2h Iran executes dozens, arrests 4,000+ amid crackdown after US-Israel strikes
Likely NO
Iran military action
4 articles
· 2h ago
6%
▼0¢
2h IAEA investigates drone strike near Zaporizhzhia NPP, heightening regional tensions
✓ 23h Iran warns of likely war resumption amid US tensions
3h Iranian strikes hit 16 US military sites, causing billions in damage
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 1
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 2 100% FLAT
2h US debt hits $39T, Bitcoin seen as hedge amid geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium
1 article
· 2h ago
9%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran's enriched uranium surrender 0% FLAT
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting 31% FLAT
✓ 32h Graham calls for US action if Iran resists in nuclear talks, impacting markets
Likely NO
Bitcoin future price predictions
1 article
· 2h ago
4%
▼0¢
2h Senator Tillis stalls CLARITY Act, impacting Bitcoin’s long-term outlook
Likely NO
Crude oil price predictions by june
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
✓ 52h OPEC+ nations agree to raise oil output quotas by 188,000 BPD for June
Likely NO
US declaration of war on Iran
1 article
· 3h ago
6%
▼0¢
3h GOP blocks war powers resolution, reducing odds of US-Iran war declaration
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic
1 article
· 3h ago
5%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire 0% FLAT
3h Iran demands US withdrawal from Gulf amid Strait of Hormuz tensions
Likely NO
Best AI model by may
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
✓ 23h Pentagon excludes Anthropic from AI deals over safety disputes
Likely NO
Netanyahu out
1 article
· 3h ago
2%
▼0¢
3h Israel’s economy projected to grow 3.8% in 2026 amid regional conflict
Likely NO
Bitcoin above on april 30
1 article
· 4h ago
7%
▼0¢
⚡ Iranian regime fall 0% FLAT
4h Iran’s rial plummets amid US-Iran conflict, impacting global markets