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✓ 235m US warns shipping firms of sanctions over Iran tolls in Strait of Hormuz
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
✓ 235m US warns shipping firms of sanctions over Iran tolls in Strait of Hormuz
▲ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
100% (was 0%, ▲100¢ in 35m)
NO ▲3¢
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
2 articles
· 2h ago
33%
▼3¢
2h Trump calls US Navy actions “pirate-like” amid Iranian port blockade
✓ 33h Trump rejects Iran proposal, Strait of Hormuz blockade remains
YES ▲1¢
Jimmy kimmel fired/resigns
1 article
· 2h ago
5%
▲1¢
2h Melania Trump calls for Jimmy Kimmel’s firing amid media controversy
Likely NO
Bitcoin price targets
4 articles
Developing
100%
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 3 100% FLAT
just now Bitcoin struggles below $78K resistance amid ETF outflows
12m Alberta Investment Management makes $219M Strategy investment for Bitcoin exposure
1h Bitcoin ETFs see 5-week inflow streak amid easing US-Iran tensions
Likely NO
ECB interest rates april 2026
1 article
Developing
5%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed rate cut timing 4% FLAT
6m Bank of England warns inflation to rise amid Middle East tensions
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for april 30
2 articles
Developing
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin future price predictions 4% FLAT
17m US-Israel strike on Iran impacts Bitcoin, price drops 6% to $63,038
3h Bitcoin faces pressure as US 30-year Treasury yield
Likely NO
Bitcoin future price predictions
2 articles
Developing
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price on april 30 100% FLAT
23m Coinbase milestones bolster Bitcoin’s institutional adoption amid US regulatory clarity
4h Senator Tillis stalls CLARITY Act, impacting Bitcoin’s long-term outlook
Likely NO
Fall of the Iranian regime
3 articles
Developing
2%
▼0¢
✓ 241m Israel launches airstrikes in Lebanon amid ongoing ceasefire violations
✓ 33h UAE resumes normal air traffic, easing regional tensions
4h Spirit Airlines shuts down amid US-Iran-Israel conflict and rising fuel costs
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions
3 articles
Developing
6%
▼0¢
43m Drone strike on Russian oil complex escalates Black Sea tensions
1h Drone strike on Chornobyl escalates Russo-Ukrainian conflict tensions
3h Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil sites dim ceasefire prospects
Likely NO
Anthropic mythos provision to US government
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
44m NSA tests Anthropic’s Mythos AI for Microsoft cybersecurity flaws
Likely NO
US-Iran ceasefire
2 articles
Developing
5%
▼0¢
45m Iran’s president signals readiness for diplomacy amid ongoing US tensions
1h Iran expects further US attacks, dismisses ceasefire sincerity
Likely NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
3 articles
Developing
10%
▼0¢
51m Trump, Putin discuss Ukraine ceasefire amid ongoing conflict
1h Zelensky warns of military activity on Belarus border amid ceasefire doubts
3h Russia warns US against Iran ground operation amid tensions
Likely NO
Meta platforms stock price predictions
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Google stock price predictions 100% FLAT
✓ 256m Google stock price set for $310 by April, market shows 100% confidence
1h US equities hit record highs amid strong Q1 earnings despite US-Iran conflict
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 2
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin future price predictions 4% FLAT
1h Taiwan lawmaker proposes converting $602B forex reserves to Bitcoin amid tensions
Likely NO
Bab el-mandeb strait closure
2 articles
Developing
11%
▼0¢
1h Iran oil storage nears capacity amid US blockade, impacting global supply
✓ 72h US tightens Strait of Hormuz blockade, impacting Iran oil exports
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic normalization
1 article
Developing
2%
▼0¢
1h US, Philippines deploy anti-ship missiles near Taiwan amid military exercises
Likely NO
MegaETH FDV one day after launch
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ MegaETH market cap predictions 100% FLAT
2h MegaETH TVL nears $600M after MEGA token launch despite price drop
Likely NO
Trump's visit to China
2 articles
· 2h ago
0%
▼0¢
✓ 42h China blocks US sanctions on refineries, impacting oil market dynamics
4h US C-17 lands in Beijing, signaling preparations for Trump’s China visit in May
Likely NO
Kharg island control changes
2 articles
Developing
12%
1m Iran’s Ghalibaf asserts control over Strait of Hormuz amid US tensions
✓ 72h Pirates hijack oil tanker off Yemen, raising Bab el-Mandeb Strait concerns
Likely NO
US withdrawal from NATO timeline
2 articles
· 2h ago
10%
▼0¢
⚡ Military actions against Iran 0% FLAT
✓ 42h US to withdraw 5,000 troops from Germany amid NATO tensions over Iran
4h US-Iran diplomatic meeting odds drop after $9B arms deal
Likely NO
Largest company by december 2026
1 article
Developing
100%
⚡ Google stock price predictions 100% FLAT
3m Alphabet stock hits record high after strong Q1 earnings, US-Iran ceasefire
Likely NO
Bitcoin price april 27-may 3
1 article
· 3h ago
99.9%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 3 100% FLAT
✓ 23h Bitcoin and Ethereum see $90.5M leveraged long amid US-Iran tensions
Likely NO
Israel withdraws from lebanon
2 articles
· 3h ago
6%
▼0¢
3h Israel intercepts shell amid ongoing Lebanon conflict with Hezbollah
4h Hezbollah resurgence complicates Israeli withdrawal, US-Iran ceasefire talks
Likely NO
Military actions against Iran
2 articles
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
3h Centcom to brief Trump on new Iran military strategy amid tensions
3h Pentagon considers deploying “Dark Eagle” hypersonic missile against Iran
Likely NO
Reza pahlavi entry into Iran
1 article
· 3h ago
7%
▼0¢
⚡ Iranian regime fall 0% FLAT
⚡ Iran leadership change 34% FLAT
3h Iran’s leadership vacuum stabilizes regime under IRGC control
Likely NO
Iran leadership change
1 article
· 3h ago
7%
▼0¢
⚡ Iranian regime fall 0% FLAT
3h Iran executes dozens, arrests 4,000+ amid crackdown after US-Israel strikes
Likely NO
Iran military action
1 article
· 3h ago
6%
▼0¢
3h IAEA investigates drone strike near Zaporizhzhia NPP, heightening regional tensions
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 1
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 2 100% FLAT
3h US debt hits $39T, Bitcoin seen as hedge amid geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium
1 article
· 4h ago
9%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran's enriched uranium surrender 0% FLAT
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting 31% FLAT
✓ 34h Graham calls for US action if Iran resists in nuclear talks, impacting markets
Likely NO
Crude oil price predictions by june
1 article
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
✓ 64h OPEC+ nations agree to raise oil output quotas by 188,000 BPD for June