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43m US blockade on Iran may benefit Tehran, impact on oil prices uncertain
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
43m US blockade on Iran may benefit Tehran, impact on oil prices uncertain
▲ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
35% (was 34%, ▲1¢ in 43m)
YES ▲1¢
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
2 articles
Developing
35%
▲1¢
43m ✓ 25h US redirects 48 vessels to enforce Hormuz blockade amid ongoing operation
NO ▲1¢
Iran airspace closure
3 articles
Developing
12%
▼1¢
51m US airlifts munitions to Israel amid Iran conflict escalation
55m Trump declares end to Iran conflict, easing airspace closure fears
✓ 21h Iran vows to protect missile, nuclear tech amid US tensions
YES ▲1¢
Strait of hormuz traffic normalization
1 article
Developing
35%
▲1¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 34% FLAT
1h Iran maintains Hormuz blockade, impacting global oil shipments
NO ▲1¢
Israel withdraws from lebanon
2 articles
Developing
12%
▼1¢
1h Hezbollah escalates conflict with Israel using fibre-optic drones in Lebanon
3h US, Israeli military leaders intensify coordination amid Iran conflict
Likely YES
The devil wears prada 2 opening weekend box office
1 article
Developing
1%
2m ‘The Devil Wears Prada 2’ tops box office with $32.5M opening day
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 2
2 articles
Developing
99.9%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 4 100% FLAT
8m Bitcoin up 15% as Game Theory Dashboard signals cooperation shift
✓ 226m CryptoQuant warns Bitcoin’s April surge speculative, correction risk looms
Likely NO
US invasion of Iran
1 article
Developing
12%
▼0¢
⚡ US declaration of war on Iran 8% FLAT
17m US defense vulnerabilities reduce likelihood of Iran invasion: WSJ
Likely NO
Trump's visit to China
2 articles
Developing
93%
▼0¢
29m US backs Anthropic AI model amid China tech tensions
✓ 22h China enacts trade rules as Trump-Xi summit faces uncertainty
Likely NO
Reza pahlavi entry into Iran
1 article
Developing
8%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran leadership change 34% FLAT
35m Iran expands military strikes, heightening instability and leadership change odds
Likely NO
Spirit airlines shutdown
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
✓ 339m Spirit Airlines collapses amid high jet fuel costs, failed $500M bailout
✓ 32h JetBlue expands at FLL as Spirit Airlines ceases operations
Likely NO
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
1 article
Developing
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 4% FLAT
41m Iran conflict drives oil prices over $100, impacting Fed rate cut outlook
Likely NO
Crude oil price predictions by june
2 articles
Developing
11%
▼0¢
48m OPEC+ boosts output amid Hormuz closure, oil prices surge past $125
3h OPEC+ raises oil output quotas amid Strait of Hormuz closure
Likely NO
Kharg island control changes
1 article
Developing
8%
▼0¢
1h Supertanker crosses Strait of Hormuz, hinting at traffic normalization
Likely NO
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
2 articles
Developing
35%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 34% FLAT
1h Trump rejects Iran proposal, keeps Hormuz blockade amid tensions
4h Iran accuses US of NPT non-compliance, heightening diplomatic tensions
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
5 articles
Developing
14%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 14% FLAT
✓ 31h Trump fast-tracks $8.6B arms deal to Middle East amid Iran tensions: FT
1h US fast-tracks arms sales to Middle East allies amid rising Iran tensions
✓ 43h Iran proposes barring Israeli vessels from Strait of Hormuz, US ships face fees
Likely NO
ECB interest rates april 2026
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
✓ 21h Bank of England holds rates, signals future hikes amid Iran war
Likely NO
Iran uranium enrichment agreement
2 articles
Developing
11%
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 14% FLAT
4m Iran asserts no uranium enrichment limits under IAEA, complicates US deal talks
46m Iran’s oil strategy may prevent WTI crude from hitting $150 in May 2026
Likely NO
Bank of brazil decision in april 2026
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ ECB interest rates april 2026 100% FLAT
1h Bank of Botswana hikes rates amid global inflation pressures
3h Brazil bans stablecoin, crypto settlements for cross-border payments
Likely NO
Pharos network FDV predictions
1 article
Developing
0%
▼0¢
1h Pharos Network FDV may exceed $50M post-$PROS launch on Aerodrome
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by april 30, 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Russia capture kostyantynivka 76% FLAT
2h North Korea bolsters Russia’s Ukraine war effort with arms and troops
Likely NO
U.S. anti-cartel operation timeline
1 article
· 2h ago
99.9%
▼0¢
2h US boosts Latin America presence with military, mineral deals amid China tensions
Likely NO
Meta platforms stock price predictions
2 articles
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
2h Meta stock price prediction drops despite strong earnings from tech giants
4h Meta Platforms’ AI investment surge amid US-China tech rivalry
Likely NO
Bab el-mandeb strait closure
2 articles
· 3h ago
11%
▼0¢
✓ 23h Kuwait halts oil exports amid Strait of Hormuz blockade, impacting global supply
5h Iraq reroutes oil exports through Syria, bypassing Strait of Hormuz
Likely NO
US-Iran ceasefire
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
✓ 33h Iran official warns of likely renewed conflict with US amid ceasefire tensions
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions
1 article
· 3h ago
6%
▼0¢
3h Russian drone strike damages Chernobyl arc, complicates ceasefire prospects
Likely NO
Iran military action
1 article
· 3h ago
2%
▼0¢
✓ 23h Israel conducts over 20 strikes on Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, dozens killed
Likely NO
Next Israeli prime minister
1 article
· 3h ago
3%
▼0¢
3h Bennett unveils ‘Israeli Renaissance’ plan, forms alliance to challenge Netanyahu
Likely NO
US withdrawal from NATO timeline
2 articles
· 4h ago
1%
▼0¢
4h US to withdraw 5,000 troops from Germany amid NATO tensions
✓ 25h Trump orders 5,000 US troops out of Germany amid NATO tensions
Likely NO
MegaETH FDV one day after launch
1 article
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ MegaETH market cap predictions 100% FLAT
✓ 24h MegaETH market cap falls short of $1B prediction post-launch
Likely NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
1 article
· 4h ago
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions 0% FLAT
4h Ukraine seeks clarity from Trump on Russia’s May 9 truce proposal
Likely NO
Anthropic mythos provision to US government
1 article
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price in april 0% FLAT
4h North Korean hackers behind record $635M crypto theft in April 2026
Likely NO
Bitcoin price targets
1 article
· 6h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 3 100% FLAT
6h Bitcoin struggles below $78K resistance amid ETF outflows