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✓ 214m US considers further military action against Iran amid missile threat
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
✓ 214m US considers further military action against Iran amid missile threat
▲ Iran leadership status by end of 2026
13% (was 12%, ▲1¢ in 14m)
⚡ Iran airspace closure: 11% FLAT
YES ▲1¢
Iran leadership status by end of 2026
1 article
Developing
13%
▲1¢
⚡ Iran airspace closure 11% FLAT
✓ 214m 
YES ▲1¢
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
3 articles
Developing
33%
▲1¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 14% FLAT
18m Iran accuses US of piracy over seized oil tankers amid Hormuz tensions
38m Trump calls US Hormuz blockade “profitable,” likens it to piracy amid tensions
2h US blockade on Iran may benefit Tehran, impact on oil prices uncertain
NO ▲1¢
Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
Developing
18%
▼1¢
⚡ US x Iran permanent peace deal 18% FLAT
46m US appoints hawkish adviser Nick Stewart to Iran negotiating team
YES ▲1¢
Iran airspace closure
4 articles
Developing
13%
▲1¢
⚡ Bab el-mandeb strait closure 11% FLAT
1h Iran faces oil crisis as US sanctions tighten amid rising tensions
2h US airlifts munitions to Israel amid Iran conflict escalation
2h Trump declares end to Iran conflict, easing airspace closure fears
NO ▲1¢
Strait of hormuz traffic normalization
1 article
· 2h ago
33%
▼1¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 34% FLAT
2h Iran maintains Hormuz blockade, impacting global oil shipments
Likely YES
The devil wears prada 2 opening weekend box office
1 article
Developing
1%
1h ‘The Devil Wears Prada 2’ tops box office with $32.5M opening day
Likely NO
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
2 articles
Developing
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 4% FLAT
⚡ Crude oil price predictions by june 100% FLAT
2m Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, oil prices surge amid US-Iran conflict
2h Iran conflict drives oil prices over $100, impacting Fed rate cut outlook
Likely NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium
1 article
Developing
10%
▼0¢
✓ 26m Trump dismisses Iran proposal, signals continued diplomatic impasse
Likely NO
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
4 articles
Developing
10%
▼0¢
✓ 412m Trump reviews Iran proposal amid potential diplomatic shift
✓ 331m Trump rejects Iran proposal, dims prospects for US-Iran talks
1h US fast-tracks $8.6B arms to Middle East, bypasses Congress amid Iran tensions
Likely NO
Spirit airlines shutdown
3 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
14m Spirit Airlines ceases operations amid financial struggles and rising fuel costs
✓ 42h Spirit Airlines collapses amid high jet fuel costs, failed $500M bailout
✓ 33h JetBlue expands at FLL as Spirit Airlines ceases operations
Likely NO
US invasion of Iran
3 articles
Developing
5%
▼0¢
19m Trump warns of potential US strikes on Iran if they “misbehave”
22m US proposes Maritime Freedom Construct for Strait of Hormuz control
1h US defense vulnerabilities reduce likelihood of Iran invasion: WSJ
Likely NO
Israel withdraws from lebanon
3 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Netanyahu out 4% FLAT
26m Israel security cabinet to discuss Gaza military operations amid Hamas tensions
1h Israel intensifies operations in Bint Jbeil amid Lebanon withdrawal uncertainty
2h Hezbollah escalates conflict with Israel using fibre-optic drones in Lebanon
Likely NO
ECB interest rates april 2026
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
32m Lagarde dismisses stagflation fears despite rising eurozone inflation
✓ 23h Bank of England holds rates, signals future hikes amid Iran war
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 4
1 article
Developing
99.9%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum future price predictions 4% FLAT
33m Coinbase unveils CUSHY fund for institutional stablecoin investments
Likely NO
Ethereum price in april
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price on may 2 100% FLAT
40m Ethereum faces downward pressure amid geopolitical, macroeconomic challenges
Likely NO
Bitcoin future price predictions
1 article
Developing
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price in april 0% FLAT
44m SEC chair calls for new crypto legislation amid outdated legal framework
Likely NO
Fall of the Iranian regime
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel withdraws from lebanon 10% FLAT
57m Iran proposes ceasefire, demands Israeli withdrawal amid US talks
Likely NO
Bitcoin all time high predictions
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Solana price on may 2 0% FLAT
✓ 359m Bitcoin reclaims $79,000 amid Middle East ceasefire reports
Likely NO
US withdrawal from NATO timeline
1 article
Developing
1%
▼0¢
✓ 21h Trump threatens troop withdrawals from NATO allies Spain, Italy
Likely NO
Solana price predictions for may
1 article
Developing
4%
▼0¢
1h AllUnity expands EURAU stablecoin to Solana for euro transfers
Likely NO
Jimmy kimmel fired/resigns
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
1h Joe Rogan defends Jimmy Kimmel amid Trump family backlash over joke
Likely NO
Dissent at april Fed meeting
1 article
Developing
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 4% FLAT
1h Fed’s Goolsbee highlights inflation concerns amid internal Fed disagreements
Likely NO
Iran uranium enrichment agreement
2 articles
Developing
14%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 14% FLAT
1h Iran asserts no uranium enrichment limits under IAEA, complicates US deal talks
2h Iran’s oil strategy may prevent WTI crude from hitting $150 in May 2026
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 2
2 articles
Developing
99.9%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 4 100% FLAT
1h Bitcoin up 15% as Game Theory Dashboard signals cooperation shift
✓ 31h CryptoQuant warns Bitcoin’s April surge speculative, correction risk looms
Likely NO
Trump's visit to China
1 article
· 2h ago
93%
▼0¢
2h US backs Anthropic AI model amid China tech tensions
Likely NO
Reza pahlavi entry into Iran
1 article
· 2h ago
8%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran leadership change 34% FLAT
2h Iran expands military strikes, heightening instability and leadership change odds
Likely NO
Crude oil price predictions by june
1 article
· 2h ago
11%
▼0¢
2h OPEC+ boosts output amid Hormuz closure, oil prices surge past $125
Likely NO
Kharg island control changes
1 article
· 2h ago
8%
▼0¢
2h Supertanker crosses Strait of Hormuz, hinting at traffic normalization
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
2 articles
· 3h ago
14%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 14% FLAT
✓ 33h Trump fast-tracks $8.6B arms deal to Middle East amid Iran tensions: FT
3h US fast-tracks arms sales to Middle East allies amid rising Iran tensions
Likely NO
Bank of brazil decision in april 2026
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ ECB interest rates april 2026 100% FLAT
3h Bank of Botswana hikes rates amid global inflation pressures
Likely NO
Pharos network FDV predictions
1 article
· 3h ago
0%
▼0¢
3h Pharos Network FDV may exceed $50M post-$PROS launch on Aerodrome