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✓ 31h US considers further military action against Iran amid missile threat
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
✓ 31h US considers further military action against Iran amid missile threat
▲ Iran leadership status by end of 2026
16% (was 12%, ▲4¢ in 1h)
⚡ Iran airspace closure: 11% FLAT
YES ▲4¢
Iran leadership status by end of 2026
1 article
Developing
16%
▲4¢
⚡ Iran airspace closure 11% FLAT
✓ 31h 
YES ▲4¢
Iran airspace closure
3 articles
· 2h ago
16%
▲4¢
⚡ Bab el-mandeb strait closure 11% FLAT
2h Iran faces oil crisis as US sanctions tighten amid rising tensions
3h US airlifts munitions to Israel amid Iran conflict escalation
3h Trump declares end to Iran conflict, easing airspace closure fears
NO ▲2¢
Strait of hormuz traffic normalization
1 article
· 3h ago
32%
▼2¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 34% FLAT
3h Iran maintains Hormuz blockade, impacting global oil shipments
NO ▲1¢
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
4 articles
Developing
32%
▼1¢
59m Hormuz deadlock persists as Trump faces War Powers deadline
1h Iran accuses US of piracy over seized oil tankers amid Hormuz tensions
✓ 31h Trump calls US Hormuz blockade “profitable,” likens it to piracy amid tensions
NO ▲1¢
Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
Developing
18%
▼1¢
⚡ US x Iran permanent peace deal 18% FLAT
1h US appoints hawkish adviser Nick Stewart to Iran negotiating team
YES ▲1¢
Iran uranium enrichment agreement
2 articles
· 2h ago
15%
▲1¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 14% FLAT
2h Iran asserts no uranium enrichment limits under IAEA, complicates US deal talks
3h Iran’s oil strategy may prevent WTI crude from hitting $150 in May 2026
YES ▲1¢
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
1 article
· 4h ago
15%
▲1¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 14% FLAT
✓ 34h Trump fast-tracks $8.6B arms deal to Middle East amid Iran tensions: FT
Likely YES
The devil wears prada 2 opening weekend box office
1 article
· 2h ago
1%
2h ‘The Devil Wears Prada 2’ tops box office with $32.5M opening day
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by april 30, 2026
1 article
Developing
10%
▼0¢
⚡ Russia x Ukraine ceasefire 10% FLAT
10m Ukraine rejects Russia’s ceasefire proposal, demands long-term peace deal
Likely NO
Meta platforms stock price predictions
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
13m Meta and Microsoft cut 81K jobs in Q1 2026 to fund AI infrastructure
Likely NO
Fed rate cut timing
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
32m Goolsbee warns against rate cuts as inflation, oil prices surge
Likely NO
Trump's visit to China
2 articles
Developing
93%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump visit to China 93% FLAT
55m Beijing defies US sanctions, escalating tensions ahead of Trump-Xi summit
3h US backs Anthropic AI model amid China tech tensions
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions
1 article
Developing
6%
▼0¢
57m Russia intercepts 270 Ukrainian drones amid ongoing conflict
Likely NO
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
2 articles
Developing
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 4% FLAT
⚡ Crude oil price predictions by june 100% FLAT
1h Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, oil prices surge amid US-Iran conflict
3h Iran conflict drives oil prices over $100, impacting Fed rate cut outlook
Likely NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium
1 article
Developing
10%
▼0¢
✓ 81h Trump dismisses Iran proposal, signals continued diplomatic impasse
Likely NO
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
4 articles
Developing
10%
▼0¢
✓ 61h Trump reviews Iran proposal amid potential diplomatic shift
✓ 41h Trump rejects Iran proposal, dims prospects for US-Iran talks
2h US fast-tracks $8.6B arms to Middle East, bypasses Congress amid Iran tensions
Likely NO
Spirit airlines shutdown
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
✓ 31h Spirit Airlines ceases operations amid financial struggles and rising fuel costs
✓ 43h Spirit Airlines collapses amid high jet fuel costs, failed $500M bailout
Likely NO
US invasion of Iran
3 articles
Developing
5%
▼0¢
✓ 61h Trump warns of potential US strikes on Iran if they “misbehave”
1h US proposes Maritime Freedom Construct for Strait of Hormuz control
2h US defense vulnerabilities reduce likelihood of Iran invasion: WSJ
Likely NO
Israel withdraws from lebanon
3 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Netanyahu out 4% FLAT
✓ 21h Israel security cabinet to discuss Gaza military operations amid Hamas tensions
2h Israel intensifies operations in Bint Jbeil amid Lebanon withdrawal uncertainty
4h Hezbollah escalates conflict with Israel using fibre-optic drones in Lebanon
Likely NO
ECB interest rates april 2026
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
1h Lagarde dismisses stagflation fears despite rising eurozone inflation
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 4
1 article
Developing
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum future price predictions 4% FLAT
1h Coinbase unveils CUSHY fund for institutional stablecoin investments
Likely NO
Ethereum price in april
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price on may 2 100% FLAT
1h Ethereum faces downward pressure amid geopolitical, macroeconomic challenges
Likely NO
Bitcoin future price predictions
1 article
Developing
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price in april 0% FLAT
1h SEC chair calls for new crypto legislation amid outdated legal framework
Likely NO
Fall of the Iranian regime
1 article
· 2h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel withdraws from lebanon 10% FLAT
✓ 32h Iran proposes ceasefire, demands Israeli withdrawal amid US talks
Likely NO
Bitcoin all time high predictions
1 article
· 2h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Solana price on may 2 0% FLAT
✓ 32h Bitcoin reclaims $79,000 amid Middle East ceasefire reports
Likely NO
US withdrawal from NATO timeline
1 article
· 2h ago
1%
▼0¢
✓ 32h Trump threatens troop withdrawals from NATO allies Spain, Italy
Likely NO
Solana price predictions for may
1 article
· 2h ago
4%
▼0¢
2h AllUnity expands EURAU stablecoin to Solana for euro transfers
Likely NO
Jimmy kimmel fired/resigns
1 article
· 2h ago
3%
▼0¢
2h Joe Rogan defends Jimmy Kimmel amid Trump family backlash over joke
Likely NO
Dissent at april Fed meeting
1 article
· 2h ago
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 4% FLAT
✓ 22h Fed’s Goolsbee highlights inflation concerns amid internal Fed disagreements
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 2
2 articles
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 4 100% FLAT
2h Bitcoin up 15% as Game Theory Dashboard signals cooperation shift
✓ 33h CryptoQuant warns Bitcoin’s April surge speculative, correction risk looms
Likely NO
Reza pahlavi entry into Iran
1 article
· 3h ago
8%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran leadership change 34% FLAT
3h Iran expands military strikes, heightening instability and leadership change odds
Likely NO
Crude oil price predictions by june
1 article
· 3h ago
11%
▼0¢
3h OPEC+ boosts output amid Hormuz closure, oil prices surge past $125
Likely NO
Kharg island control changes
1 article
· 4h ago
8%
▼0¢
4h Supertanker crosses Strait of Hormuz, hinting at traffic normalization