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6h US radar system damage in Middle East may shift alliances toward China
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
6h US radar system damage in Middle East may shift alliances toward China
▼ US forces enter Iran
15% (was 21%, ▼6¢ in 6h)
YES ▲2¢
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
2 articles
· 2h ago
28%
▲2¢
✓ 22h Iran condemns Trump’s piracy remark amid Strait of Hormuz blockade tensions
4h Iran supertanker evades US blockade, impacting Strait of Hormuz market outlook
YES ▲2¢
Bab el-mandeb strait closure
2 articles
· 3h ago
28%
▲2¢
✓ 23h Iranian editor calls for Bab al-Mandab Strait closure amid US tensions
6h Iranian speedboats spotted in Strait of Hormuz, mine activity reported
NO ▲1¢
Iran leadership status by end of 2026
4 articles
Developing
3%
▼1¢
⚡ Iran leadership change 34% FLAT
⚡ Fall of the Iranian regime 4% FLAT
12m Iran executes political prisoner amid international scrutiny on human rights
3h Iran proposes peace plan amid US tensions, seeks security assurances
4h Iran rejects US proposal, reduces odds of near-term diplomatic meeting
YES ▲1¢
Israel withdraws from lebanon
1 article
Developing
11%
▲1¢
1h Saudi mediation in Lebanon stalls amid internal divisions, impacting Israel withdrawal
NO ▲1¢
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
· 5h ago
31%
▼1¢
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting 32% FLAT
5h US-Iran diplomatic deadlock persists amid stalled negotiations
YES ▲1¢
Google stock price predictions
1 article
· 7h ago
93%
▲1¢
7h Alphabet’s Q1 earnings boost investor confidence, Google Cloud revenue up 63%
Likely NO
Meta platforms stock price predictions
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
25m China blocks Meta’s $2B Manus AI deal amid US-China tech tensions
Likely NO
Iran airspace closure
5 articles
Developing
15%
▼0¢
⚡ Iranian regime fall 6% FLAT
46m Iran internet blackout hits 65 days amid US and Israeli military tensions
1h Israel-Iran energy conflict escalates, potential Iran airspace closure looms
1h UAE resumes full air traffic as Iran airspace closure odds fall
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by april 30, 2026
2 articles
Developing
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Russia x Ukraine ceasefire 10% FLAT
⚡ Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions 6% FLAT
53m Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 2026 remains unlikely amid stalled diplomacy
4h Russia, Ukraine dispute Sumy region control amid ongoing conflict
Likely NO
US invasion of Iran
2 articles
Developing
8%
▼0¢
⚡ US declaration of war on Iran 8% FLAT
✓ 21h US to cut troop presence in Germany, signaling potential de-escalation with Iran
✓ 24h Trump warns of potential military strikes against Iran amid tensions
Likely NO
Starmer out timing
1 article
Developing
41%
▼0¢
1h UK local elections test Labour’s leadership amid two-party system breakdown
Likely NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
1 article
Developing
10%
▼0¢
✓ 21h Ukraine drone attack on Russian tankers escalates tensions, dims ceasefire hopes
Likely NO
Spirit airlines shutdown
2 articles
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
2h Spirit Airlines confirms shutdown amid regulatory, geopolitical pressures
✓ 26h Spirit Airlines ceases operations after failing to secure $500M bailout
Likely NO
US-Iran nuclear deal
4 articles
· 2h ago
11%
▼0¢
✓ 42h Trump doubts Iran peace proposal amid ongoing diplomatic challenges
4h North Korea cyber threats heighten risk of $1.2B crypto hacks in 2026
5h US warns Iran mimics North Korea’s nuclear strategy amid military tensions
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions
1 article
· 2h ago
6%
▼0¢
2h Ukraine drone strike targets Russian oil export terminal amid ongoing conflict
Likely NO
Fall of the Iranian regime
2 articles
· 2h ago
3%
▼0¢
2h Israeli strike on Iran petrochemical site raises military pressure
5h Satirical video escalates tensions, complicates Israel-Lebanon withdrawal plans
Likely NO
Ethereum price on may 2
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
2h Whales accumulate 140,000 Ethereum worth $322M, boosting market confidence
Likely NO
Largest company by market cap predictions
1 article
· 2h ago
80%
▼0¢
2h Tesla faces market pressure from US-China trade tensions, Nvidia favored
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026
2 articles
· 2h ago
99.9%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 2 0% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 4 100% FLAT
2h Bitcoin faces selloff as Powell exits, Warsh steps in May 2026
4h US Treasury injects $35B liquidity, supports Bitcoin’s potential rise to $115K
Likely NO
Iran's enriched uranium surrender
2 articles
· 3h ago
11%
▼0¢
✓ 23h US to maintain siege on Iran’s oil exports amid ongoing conflict
4h Iran conflict escalates, Strait of Hormuz closure impacts oil supply
Likely NO
Iranian demands Trump will agree to
1 article
· 3h ago
10%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran's enriched uranium surrender 32% FLAT
⚡ US obtains Iranian enriched uranium 10% FLAT
3h US approves $8.6B arms sales to Middle East allies amid Iran tensions
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
2 articles
· 3h ago
0%
▼0¢
3h China orders refineries to ignore US sanctions, raising oil supply concerns
7h US warns against paying Iran for Strait of Hormuz passage, raising tensions
Likely NO
ECB interest rates april 2026
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
3h ECB, BOE signal rate hikes amid rising oil prices and inflation concerns
Likely NO
Trump visit to China
1 article
· 4h ago
94%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's visit to China 0% FLAT
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 15% FLAT
4h China defies US sanctions, complicates Trump visit and Iran deal talks
Likely NO
MegaETH market cap after launch
1 article
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ MegaETH market cap predictions 100% FLAT
4h MegaETH launches MEGA token with $1.5B valuation on major exchanges
Likely NO
Crude oil price predictions by june
1 article
· 5h ago
100%
▼0¢
✓ 25h Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, impacting oil supply amid UAE OPEC+ exit
Likely NO
Ethereum price predictions for may
1 article
· 5h ago
100%
▼0¢
5h Ethereum’s Glamsterdam upgrade triples gas limit, boosts scalability
Likely NO
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
1 article
· 6h ago
5%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed rate cut timing 4% FLAT
6h Vietnam inflation rises in April amid Iran conflict-driven energy price surge
Likely NO
US GDP growth Q1 2026
1 article
· 6h ago
100%
▼0¢
✓ 26h US federal debt reaches record $39T amid economic growth concerns
Likely NO
Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline
1 article
· 7h ago
1%
▼0¢
7h Jerome Powell to step down as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026, remain as governor