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7h US radar system damage in Middle East may shift alliances toward China
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
7h US radar system damage in Middle East may shift alliances toward China
▼ US forces enter Iran
15% (was 21%, ▼6¢ in 7h)
YES ▲2¢
Bab el-mandeb strait closure
2 articles
· 4h ago
28%
▲2¢
✓ 24h Iranian editor calls for Bab al-Mandab Strait closure amid US tensions
7h Iranian speedboats spotted in Strait of Hormuz, mine activity reported
YES ▲1¢
Israel withdraws from lebanon
2 articles
Developing
3%
▲1¢
✓ 257m Israel orders southern Lebanon evacuations amid military operations
2h Saudi mediation in Lebanon stalls amid internal divisions, impacting Israel withdrawal
NO ▲1¢
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
· 6h ago
31%
▼1¢
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting 32% FLAT
6h US-Iran diplomatic deadlock persists amid stalled negotiations
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions
2 articles
Developing
6%
▼0¢
14m Ukraine drone strikes hit key Russian assets, ceasefire unlikely by 2026
3h Ukraine drone strike targets Russian oil export terminal amid ongoing conflict
Likely NO
Iran leadership status by end of 2026
4 articles
Developing
15%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran airspace closure 15% FLAT
28m IRGC warns US as Iran consolidates power amid 2026 leadership uncertainty
✓ 21h Iran executes political prisoner amid international scrutiny on human rights
5h Iran proposes peace plan amid US tensions, seeks security assurances
Likely NO
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
3 articles
Developing
28%
▼0¢
32m Iranian supertanker evades US blockade, challenges enforcement
✓ 23h Iran condemns Trump’s piracy remark amid Strait of Hormuz blockade tensions
6h Iran supertanker evades US blockade, impacting Strait of Hormuz market outlook
Likely NO
Iran airspace closure
6 articles
Developing
15%
▼0¢
49m Red Cross warns of renewed Iran attacks amid airspace closure concerns
1h Iran internet blackout hits 65 days amid US and Israeli military tensions
2h Israel-Iran energy conflict escalates, potential Iran airspace closure looms
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 2
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price on may 2 100% FLAT
56m Bitcoin faces potential downside after April surge, says CryptoQuant report
Likely NO
Crude oil price predictions by june
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
✓ 31h OPEC+ to raise oil output by 188,000 bpd amid geopolitical tensions
✓ 26h Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, impacting oil supply amid UAE OPEC+ exit
Likely NO
Russia NATO invasion
1 article
Developing
6%
▼0¢
1h US troop withdrawal from Germany raises NATO deterrence concerns
Likely NO
Meta platforms stock price predictions
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
1h China blocks Meta’s $2B Manus AI deal amid US-China tech tensions
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by april 30, 2026
2 articles
· 2h ago
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Russia x Ukraine ceasefire 10% FLAT
⚡ Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions 6% FLAT
2h Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 2026 remains unlikely amid stalled diplomacy
5h Russia, Ukraine dispute Sumy region control amid ongoing conflict
Likely NO
US invasion of Iran
2 articles
· 2h ago
8%
▼0¢
⚡ US declaration of war on Iran 8% FLAT
✓ 22h US to cut troop presence in Germany, signaling potential de-escalation with Iran
✓ 26h Trump warns of potential military strikes against Iran amid tensions
Likely NO
Starmer out timing
1 article
· 2h ago
41%
▼0¢
2h UK local elections test Labour’s leadership amid two-party system breakdown
Likely NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
1 article
· 3h ago
10%
▼0¢
✓ 23h Ukraine drone attack on Russian tankers escalates tensions, dims ceasefire hopes
Likely NO
Spirit airlines shutdown
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
✓ 23h Spirit Airlines confirms shutdown amid regulatory, geopolitical pressures
Likely NO
US-Iran nuclear deal
3 articles
· 3h ago
3%
▼0¢
✓ 43h Trump doubts Iran peace proposal amid ongoing diplomatic challenges
5h North Korea cyber threats heighten risk of $1.2B crypto hacks in 2026
6h US warns Iran mimics North Korea’s nuclear strategy amid military tensions
Likely NO
Fall of the Iranian regime
2 articles
· 3h ago
3%
▼0¢
3h Israeli strike on Iran petrochemical site raises military pressure
6h Satirical video escalates tensions, complicates Israel-Lebanon withdrawal plans
Likely NO
Ethereum price on may 2
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
3h Whales accumulate 140,000 Ethereum worth $322M, boosting market confidence
Likely NO
Largest company by market cap predictions
1 article
· 3h ago
80%
▼0¢
3h Tesla faces market pressure from US-China trade tensions, Nvidia favored
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026
2 articles
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 2 0% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 4 100% FLAT
3h Bitcoin faces selloff as Powell exits, Warsh steps in May 2026
5h US Treasury injects $35B liquidity, supports Bitcoin’s potential rise to $115K
Likely NO
Iran's enriched uranium surrender
2 articles
· 4h ago
11%
▼0¢
✓ 24h US to maintain siege on Iran’s oil exports amid ongoing conflict
5h Iran conflict escalates, Strait of Hormuz closure impacts oil supply
Likely NO
Iranian demands Trump will agree to
1 article
· 4h ago
10%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran's enriched uranium surrender 32% FLAT
⚡ US obtains Iranian enriched uranium 10% FLAT
4h US approves $8.6B arms sales to Middle East allies amid Iran tensions
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
1 article
· 4h ago
0%
▼0¢
4h China orders refineries to ignore US sanctions, raising oil supply concerns
Likely NO
ECB interest rates april 2026
1 article
· 5h ago
100%
▼0¢
5h ECB, BOE signal rate hikes amid rising oil prices and inflation concerns
Likely NO
Trump visit to China
1 article
· 5h ago
94%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's visit to China 0% FLAT
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 15% FLAT
5h China defies US sanctions, complicates Trump visit and Iran deal talks
Likely NO
MegaETH market cap after launch
1 article
· 5h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ MegaETH market cap predictions 100% FLAT
5h MegaETH launches MEGA token with $1.5B valuation on major exchanges
Likely NO
Ethereum price predictions for may
1 article
· 6h ago
100%
▼0¢
6h Ethereum’s Glamsterdam upgrade triples gas limit, boosts scalability