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✓ 26h Iranian editor calls for Bab al-Mandab Strait closure amid US tensions
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
✓ 26h Iranian editor calls for Bab al-Mandab Strait closure amid US tensions
▲ Bab el-mandeb strait closure
28% (was 26%, ▲2¢ in 6h)
YES ▲1¢
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
2 articles
Developing
16%
▲1¢
⚡ Iran airspace closure 16% FLAT
25m Iran issues one-month ultimatum to end US-Israeli conflict and blockade
6h China orders refineries to ignore US sanctions, raising oil supply concerns
YES ▲1¢
Iran leadership status by end of 2026
4 articles
Developing
16%
▲1¢
⚡ Iran airspace closure 15% FLAT
✓ 21h IRGC warns US as Iran consolidates power amid 2026 leadership uncertainty
✓ 32h Iran executes political prisoner amid international scrutiny on human rights
6h Iran proposes peace plan amid US tensions, seeks security assurances
YES ▲1¢
Israel withdraws from lebanon
2 articles
· 2h ago
3%
▲1¢
✓ 22h Israel orders southern Lebanon evacuations amid military operations
4h Saudi mediation in Lebanon stalls amid internal divisions, impacting Israel withdrawal
YES ▲1¢
Ethereum price on may 2
1 article
· 5h ago
93%
▲1¢
5h Whales accumulate 140,000 Ethereum worth $322M, boosting market confidence
Likely NO
Bitcoin price targets
1 article
Developing
99.9%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 4 100% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price april 27-may 3 0% FLAT
4m BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF captures $1.7B in April inflows amid easing tensions
Likely NO
Crude oil price predictions by june
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
10m OPEC+ boosts oil production amid US-Israel-Iran tensions
✓ 92h OPEC+ to raise oil output by 188,000 bpd amid geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions
3 articles
Developing
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Russia NATO invasion 2% FLAT
⚡ NATO and Russia military clash 5% FLAT
24m Drone threats in Baltic states, Finland raise NATO-Russia clash concerns
1h Ukraine drone strikes hit key Russian assets, ceasefire unlikely by 2026
4h Ukraine drone strike targets Russian oil export terminal amid ongoing conflict
Likely NO
Largest company by december 2026
1 article
Developing
80%
▼0¢
⚡ Largest company by market cap predictions 78% FLAT
29m Alphabet gains $420B in market cap, challenges Nvidia for top spot
Likely NO
Iran airspace closure
7 articles
Developing
16%
▼0¢
49m Israel intercepts projectiles from Lebanon amid ceasefire violations
1h Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon escalate tensions with Iran
2h Red Cross warns of renewed Iran attacks amid airspace closure concerns
Likely NO
US invasion of Iran
2 articles
Developing
28%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 28% FLAT
✓ 259m Trump considers Iran peace proposal as Hormuz traffic halts
✓ 23h US to cut troop presence in Germany, signaling potential de-escalation with Iran
Likely NO
Spirit airlines shutdown
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
✓ 31h Spirit Airlines ceases operations amid soaring fuel costs
✓ 24h Spirit Airlines confirms shutdown amid regulatory, geopolitical pressures
Likely NO
US GDP growth Q1 2026
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
1h Q1 2026 US GDP growth confirmed, contradicting market predictions
Likely NO
Best AI model by may
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
1h US Defense partners with tech giants for AI-first military initiative
Likely NO
Iranian demands Trump will agree to
2 articles
Developing
28%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 28% FLAT
1h Kuwait halts oil exports amid Hormuz blockade, first since Gulf War
5h US approves $8.6B arms sales to Middle East allies amid Iran tensions
Likely NO
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
2 articles
Developing
28%
▼0¢
1h Iranian supertanker evades US blockade, challenges enforcement
✓ 24h Iran condemns Trump’s piracy remark amid Strait of Hormuz blockade tensions
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 2
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price on may 2 100% FLAT
2h Bitcoin faces potential downside after April surge, says CryptoQuant report
Likely NO
Russia NATO invasion
1 article
· 2h ago
6%
▼0¢
2h US troop withdrawal from Germany raises NATO deterrence concerns
Likely NO
Meta platforms stock price predictions
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
2h China blocks Meta’s $2B Manus AI deal amid US-China tech tensions
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by april 30, 2026
2 articles
· 3h ago
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Russia x Ukraine ceasefire 10% FLAT
⚡ Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions 6% FLAT
3h Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 2026 remains unlikely amid stalled diplomacy
6h Russia, Ukraine dispute Sumy region control amid ongoing conflict
Likely NO
Starmer out timing
1 article
· 4h ago
41%
▼0¢
4h UK local elections test Labour’s leadership amid two-party system breakdown
Likely NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
1 article
· 4h ago
10%
▼0¢
✓ 24h Ukraine drone attack on Russian tankers escalates tensions, dims ceasefire hopes
Likely NO
US-Iran nuclear deal
2 articles
· 4h ago
3%
▼0¢
✓ 44h Trump doubts Iran peace proposal amid ongoing diplomatic challenges
6h North Korea cyber threats heighten risk of $1.2B crypto hacks in 2026
Likely NO
Fall of the Iranian regime
1 article
· 5h ago
3%
▼0¢
5h Israeli strike on Iran petrochemical site raises military pressure
Likely NO
Largest company by market cap predictions
1 article
· 5h ago
80%
▼0¢
5h Tesla faces market pressure from US-China trade tensions, Nvidia favored
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026
2 articles
· 5h ago
99.9%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 2 0% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 4 100% FLAT
5h Bitcoin faces selloff as Powell exits, Warsh steps in May 2026
6h US Treasury injects $35B liquidity, supports Bitcoin’s potential rise to $115K
Likely NO
Iran's enriched uranium surrender
2 articles
· 5h ago
11%
▼0¢
✓ 25h US to maintain siege on Iran’s oil exports amid ongoing conflict
7h Iran conflict escalates, Strait of Hormuz closure impacts oil supply
Likely NO
ECB interest rates april 2026
1 article
· 6h ago
100%
▼0¢
6h ECB, BOE signal rate hikes amid rising oil prices and inflation concerns