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✓ 27h Iranian editor calls for Bab al-Mandab Strait closure amid US tensions
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
✓ 27h Iranian editor calls for Bab al-Mandab Strait closure amid US tensions
▲ Bab el-mandeb strait closure
29% (was 26%, ▲3¢ in 7h)
YES ▲1¢
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
3 articles
Developing
29%
▲1¢
✓ 21h US blockade strands 1.8M barrels of Iranian oil daily amid Hormuz tensions
2h Iranian supertanker evades US blockade, challenges enforcement
✓ 25h Iran condemns Trump’s piracy remark amid Strait of Hormuz blockade tensions
NO ▲1¢
Largest company by december 2026
1 article
Developing
79%
▼1¢
⚡ Largest company by market cap predictions 78% FLAT
1h Alphabet gains $420B in market cap, challenges Nvidia for top spot
YES ▲1¢
US invasion of Iran
2 articles
· 2h ago
29%
▲1¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 28% FLAT
✓ 42h Trump considers Iran peace proposal as Hormuz traffic halts
✓ 24h US to cut troop presence in Germany, signaling potential de-escalation with Iran
YES ▲1¢
Israel withdraws from lebanon
2 articles
· 3h ago
3%
▲1¢
✓ 23h Israel orders southern Lebanon evacuations amid military operations
5h Saudi mediation in Lebanon stalls amid internal divisions, impacting Israel withdrawal
YES ▲1¢
Ethereum price on may 2
1 article
· 6h ago
93%
▲1¢
6h Whales accumulate 140,000 Ethereum worth $322M, boosting market confidence
NO ▲1¢
Largest company by market cap predictions
1 article
· 6h ago
79%
▼1¢
6h Tesla faces market pressure from US-China trade tensions, Nvidia favored
Likely NO
Starmer out timing
2 articles
Developing
41%
▼0¢
12m Local elections could threaten Starmer’s leadership amid Reform UK gains
5h UK local elections test Labour’s leadership amid two-party system breakdown
Likely NO
Iran airspace closure
9 articles
Developing
15%
▼0¢
13m US military aircraft surge towards Middle East amid Iran tensions
38m US-Iran war impacts credit markets, dims 2026 Fed rate cut prospects
52m US deploys A-10 aircraft amid rising tensions in Iran-Israel conflict
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by april 30, 2026
2 articles
Developing
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions 6% FLAT
✓ 232m Russia-Ukraine conflict escalates with renewed strikes, dimming ceasefire hopes
4h Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 2026 remains unlikely amid stalled diplomacy
Likely NO
Ethereum price predictions for may
1 article
Developing
0%
▼0¢
48m BitMine’s 4.5M ETH stake strategy boosts confidence in $5,000 May target
Likely NO
Iran leadership status by end of 2026
3 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Reza pahlavi entry into Iran 3% FLAT
50m Iranian military official warns of likely conflict resumption with US
✓ 42h IRGC warns US as Iran consolidates power amid 2026 leadership uncertainty
✓ 33h Iran executes political prisoner amid international scrutiny on human rights
Likely NO
Iranian demands Trump will agree to
3 articles
Developing
15%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 15% FLAT
57m China defies US sanctions, orders firms to ignore Iranian oil trade restrictions
2h Kuwait halts oil exports amid Hormuz blockade, first since Gulf War
6h US approves $8.6B arms sales to Middle East allies amid Iran tensions
Likely NO
Bitcoin price targets
1 article
Developing
99.9%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 4 100% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price april 27-may 3 0% FLAT
1h BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF captures $1.7B in April inflows amid easing tensions
Likely NO
Crude oil price predictions by june
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
1h OPEC+ boosts oil production amid US-Israel-Iran tensions
✓ 93h OPEC+ to raise oil output by 188,000 bpd amid geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions
3 articles
Developing
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Russia NATO invasion 2% FLAT
⚡ NATO and Russia military clash 5% FLAT
1h Drone threats in Baltic states, Finland raise NATO-Russia clash concerns
2h Ukraine drone strikes hit key Russian assets, ceasefire unlikely by 2026
5h Ukraine drone strike targets Russian oil export terminal amid ongoing conflict
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
1 article
Developing
15%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran airspace closure 16% FLAT
✓ 21h Iran issues one-month ultimatum to end US-Israeli conflict and blockade
Likely NO
Spirit airlines shutdown
2 articles
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
✓ 32h Spirit Airlines ceases operations amid soaring fuel costs
✓ 25h Spirit Airlines confirms shutdown amid regulatory, geopolitical pressures
Likely NO
US GDP growth Q1 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
2h Q1 2026 US GDP growth confirmed, contradicting market predictions
Likely NO
Best AI model by may
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
2h US Defense partners with tech giants for AI-first military initiative
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 2
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price on may 2 100% FLAT
3h Bitcoin faces potential downside after April surge, says CryptoQuant report
Likely NO
Russia NATO invasion
1 article
· 3h ago
6%
▼0¢
3h US troop withdrawal from Germany raises NATO deterrence concerns
Likely NO
Meta platforms stock price predictions
1 article
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
4h China blocks Meta’s $2B Manus AI deal amid US-China tech tensions
Likely NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
1 article
· 5h ago
10%
▼0¢
✓ 25h Ukraine drone attack on Russian tankers escalates tensions, dims ceasefire hopes
Likely NO
US-Iran nuclear deal
1 article
· 5h ago
3%
▼0¢
✓ 45h Trump doubts Iran peace proposal amid ongoing diplomatic challenges
Likely NO
Fall of the Iranian regime
1 article
· 6h ago
3%
▼0¢
6h Israeli strike on Iran petrochemical site raises military pressure
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026
1 article
· 6h ago
99.9%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 2 0% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 4 100% FLAT
6h Bitcoin faces selloff as Powell exits, Warsh steps in May 2026
Likely NO
Iran's enriched uranium surrender
1 article
· 6h ago
11%
▼0¢
✓ 26h US to maintain siege on Iran’s oil exports amid ongoing conflict